2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low

Posted by Danwolf 
2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
March 23, 2012 03:41PM
New record low or below a certain area (last year's minimum area, 2000-2010 average minimum, etc.)

Of course one particular data source will have to be selected as the "definitive" source.
Re: 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
March 26, 2012 10:40AM
Danwolf - can you suggest a good data source?
Re: 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
March 26, 2012 11:14AM
Until recently the standard was the AMSR-E dataset (http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm), unfortunately it was powered down late last year.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org) has a range of measures (http://nsidc.org/data/easytouse.html). Essentially, however, I don't have the expertise to say which is best - I was hoping someone on this forum might know. I'll keep looking, and I will comment here if I find any thing out.

Cheers,
Dan
Re: 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
May 12, 2012 04:36AM
One definitive source of data:

[psc.apl.washington.edu]

y = -0.2803x + 25.503
R^2 = 0.8549

The sea ice extent is now about 62.37% of what it was in year 1979. The least squares fit show the odds of a new record low to be a near certainty---- anyone who bet against the proposition would be throwing their money away.
Re: 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
May 12, 2012 09:08AM
Re: 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
May 15, 2012 03:26PM
The contract would need to specify either Arctic sea ice extent, or Arctic ice mass. New records for minimums are expected even if human-caused climate change did not happen; record minimums for ice mass probably would not. The former would be a contract for weather; the latter would be a contract for climate change.

PIOMAS gives values for "Arctic sea ice volume." This might be a good metric for a new stock here on IPredict.

[psc.apl.washington.edu]
Re: 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum New Record Low
January 17, 2013 05:15PM
I am dissapointed that there was no market for this prediction.
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