iPredict Discussion Forums - Draft Stock Definitions Have your say on the definition of upcoming stocks /forum/list.php?4 Thu, 06 Apr 2017 15:58:49 +0000 Phorum 5.2.20 /forum/read.php?4,19412,19412#msg-19412 Scottish Independence (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,19412,19412#msg-19412
Long Description

This contract will close at $1 if a Scottish referendum held to make Scotland Independant of the United Kingdom passes before 1 January 2015. Otherwise the contract closes at $0

Judging Statement

In order for this contract to make Scotland independant, the referendum must propose to make Scotland a state no longer part of the United Kingdom. Wording such as 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' or similar would suffice if the referendum were not tied to any spesific written proposal

If the referendum is explicitly tied to a written proposal (including draft legislation) for independence this must eventually include or be a direct precurser to Scotland no longer holding seats in the UK House of Commons, and the UK Parliament no longer having law making power in Scotland. Any referendum held under the 'Edinburgh Agreement' (background here [www.independent.co.uk] likely qualify, however iPredict's decision on this matter is final.

Whether or not the referendum passes will be determined by the terms of the referendum, and/or legislation which creates the referendum. It may be that the referendum requires a 'simple majority' of 50%+1 votes to pass, or a higher 'super majority'. If there is any doubt then a 50%+1 simple majority test will be used to determine if the referendum passes.

If a referendum is held on Scottish Independence and that referendum fails to pass, and in iPredict's judgement there is no chance of another referendum being held before 1 January 2015 then this contract will immediately close at $0.

If no referendum is held before 1 Jan 2015 then this contract will close at $0.

iPredict's judgement is final]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:12:43 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,17081,17081#msg-17081 How many more pokie machines? (5 replies) /forum/read.php?4,17081,17081#msg-17081
SKY.DEAL.POKIES

Short Description:
How many new pokies will SKYCITY be allowed (as a percentage of 500)?

Long Description:
This contract will pay 10c for every 50 extra pokie machines SKYCITY is allowed at its Auckland casino as part of a deal with the New Zealand Government over the construction of a National Convention Centre. The payout is capped at $1 (for 500 or more pokie machines). PLEASE READ THE JUDGING CRITERIA.

Judging Criteria:
The contract concerns the outcome of negotiations between the New Zealand Government and SKYCITY announced by the Prime Minister on 12 June 2011 (see [beehive.govt.nz]) and not to any other initiative on gambling legislation or regulation.
The purpose of this contract is to forecast the maximum number of pokie machines that SKYCITY will be allowed to have as a result of any new legislation and/or regulations negotiated with the New Zealand Government, over and above those allowed by existing legislation and/or regulations.
It will pay in New Zealand cents to one decimal place. That is, if SKYCITY is allowed 387 new pokie machines, the contract shall close at 77.4c.
The contract will be closed following an announcement of a deal that meets the tests outlined in iPredict’s contracts at [www.ipredict.co.nz] . It does not matter whether or not legislation and/or regulations are subsequently amended or whether or not SKYCITY decides to proceed with installing all or any of the new pokie machines.
If the deal between the New Zealand Government and SKYCITY provides for legislation and/or regulations which see a progressive increase or decrease of the number of pokie machines SKYCITY is allowed to have at its Auckland casino, the contract’s closure price will be based on the HIGHEST number of pokie machines SKYCITY will ever be allowed under the deal.
If it is not clear from the announcement the price at which this contract should close, iPredict will make inquiries of relevant authorities such as but not limited to SKYCITY, the New Zealand Government, the Regulations Review Committee of the New Zealand House of Representatives, the Department of Internal Affairs or other government departments. Traders should note that it is possible this process may require the use of formal mechanisms including but not limited to the Official Information Act and this may cause a significant delay in closing the contract. Such information will be provided to traders for comment before iPredict makes a judgment on the closure price.
If, despite these efforts, iPredict is unable to determine in good faith an appropriate closure price within one year from the date of an announcement that meets the terms of the contracts at [www.ipredict.co.nz] this contract shall be closed at 85c which is the midpoint between the opening positions of the two parties reported by 3News at [www.3news.co.nz] and represents 425 extra pokie machines.
If there is no outcome to the negotiations by 1 January 2014, or if the Prime Minister announces definitively and finally that no deal will be done with SKYCITY, the contract will close immediately at $0.
iPredict’s judgment shall be final.
All dates and times are New Zealand time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:23 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16774,16774#msg-16774 Excise taxes on smokes and booze (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,16774,16774#msg-16774
SHORT DESCRIPTION: Govt to increase excise duties on tobacco in 2012/13

LONG DESCRIPTION: This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2013, the Government announces that excise duties on tobacco products will be increased above the rate of inflation at any time during the 2012/13 financial year; otherwise it pays $0.

JUDGING CRITERIA: The contract pays based on the timing of an announcement. An announcement must be in a formal ministerial media statement that is published on www.beehive.govt.nz before 1 January 2013. The media statement must announce - explicitly or implicitly - that excise duties will be increased by more than the rate of inflation from any date in the 2012/13 financial year (which ends on 30 June 2013). The contract will close on such an announcement. It does not matter if the decision to increase excise duties is later revsersed before or after implemenation. All dates and times are New Zealand time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Sat, 07 Apr 2012 09:56:00 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16732,16732#msg-16732 US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,16732,16732#msg-16732
Long Description:

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2013, a majority of the United States Supreme Court rules that the "individual mandate" provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 is unconstitutional; otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria:

In trading this contract, traders acknowledge potential differences of opinion over the interpretation of court judgments and accept that iPredict's decision on the closure price will be final.

"Individual mandate" refers to a requirement in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 for citizens to purchase health insurance.

For the contract to pay $1, a majority of the Court must find that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and therefore unable to be imposed. Justices may give different reasons for finding the individual mandate to be unconsitutional - it is their final conclusion as to its constititionality and the effect of this finding that matters.

If there is any doubt about whether or not a majority has found that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and therefore unable to be imposed, iPredict will be guided by its own analysis of media coverage of expert legal opinions in The New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC.

If a majority of the Supreme Court finds that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 does not contain an "individual mandate", the contract shall close at $0, whether or not the court rules that such a mandate would be unconstitutional.

All dates and times are in NZT.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 04 Apr 2012 03:17:54 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16546,16546#msg-16546 Inquiry to be announced into Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister (2 replies) /forum/read.php?4,16546,16546#msg-16546
Long description

The contract pays $1 if the Prime Minister, the Auditor General, Hon. Judith Collins, or a person of official governmental authority announces a formal independent inquiry into Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister.

Judgment statement

The inquiry must be announced before 1 May 2012; if not, the contract will be closed at $0.

"Inquiry" means a formal investigation by a minister or a government agency, or an agent of a minister or a government agency such as a Queen’s Council or retired judge.

The inquiry must relate to Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister. It does NOT include investigations into privacy issues by the Privacy Commissioner or by the police into the matters discussed in the report at [www.acc.co.nz]

All dates are in New Zealand time.

[www.ipredict.co.nz]]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 26 Mar 2012 20:34:09 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16522,16522#msg-16522 Police to launch investigation into ACC scandal (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,16522,16522#msg-16522 Closure date: 1 November 2012

This contract will pay $1 if, before 1 October 2012, the NZ Police launch an investigation into matters discussed in the report by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to the Minister of ACC dated 16 March 2011 (sic) entitled “Situation Report - Breach of Privacy, Disclosure of Claims Data”, which can be found at [www.acc.co.nz]; otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging criteria

The purpose of this contract is to measure the probability that a possible police investigation, referred to at [www.nzherald.co.nz], is launched by the police in the next six months.

The contract will immediately close at $1 if:
• the NZ Police issue a media statement announcing or confirming that, prior to 1 October 2012, they launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
• both www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz report that an authoritative spokesperson for the NZ Police has announced or confirmed that, prior to 1 October 2012, the NZ Police launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
• the NZ Police confirm in writing to iPredict that, prior to 1 October 2012, they launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters

The contract will immediately close at $0 if:
• the NZ Police issue a media statement announcing or confirming that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
• both www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz report that an authoritative spokesperson for the NZ Police has announced or confirmed that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
• the NZ Police confirm in writing to iPredict that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters

If by 1 November 2012 iPredict has found it impossible to ascertain whether or not, before 1 October 2012, the NZ Police had launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters, the contract will close at $0.

“Relevant matters” are those discussed in the report dated 16 March 2011 (sic) entitled “Situation Report - Breach of Privacy, Disclosure of Claims Data” by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to the Minister of ACC, which can be found at [www.acc.co.nz]

If there is any doubt about whether a police investigation does cover these matters, iPredict will seek guidance from the NZ Police, ACC and/or a Queen’s Counsel. Having taken into account that guidance, iPredict’s decision on the closure price will be final.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 20 Mar 2012 06:13:12 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16517,16517#msg-16517 Charges ACC letter to Minister of ACC (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,16517,16517#msg-16517 Bronwyn Pullar to be charged with an offence in relation to the ACC scandal by 1 December 2012

PULLAR.CHARGED

This contract will pay $1 if before 1 December 2012 Bronwyn Pullar is charged with an offence in relation to the matters discussed in a report from ACC to the Minister of ACC found at [www.acc.co.nz] ; otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging criteria
The contract will pay $1 if a press statement is released by the Police or other responsible authority stating that Ms Pullar has been charged in relation to the ACC report, or if there are media reports in www.nzherald.co.nz and www.stuff.co.nz that Ms Pullar has been charged in relation to the ACC report.

The contract will pay $0 if there is a press statement released by the Police or other responsible authority that states that no charges will be laid against Ms Pullar in relation to the ACC report.

If a person is charged in relation to the ACC report and receives name suppression, the contract will remain open until name suppression is lifted. If Ms Pullar is the person who received name suppression, then the contract will pay $1 based on the time the charges are laid, not when the name suppression was lifted.

If, by 1 December 2012, no charges have been laid in relation to the ACC report, then the contract will close at $0.

If there is any doubt, iPredict reserves the right to enquire of the Police.

iPredict’s judgement is final.

Dates and times in NZ time.




Michelle Boag to be charged with an offence in relation to the ACC scandal by 1 December 2012

BOAG.CHARGED

This contract will pay $1 if before 1 December 2012 Michelle Boag is charged with an offence in relation to the matters discussed in a report from ACC to the Minister of ACC found at [www.acc.co.nz] ; otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging criteria
The contract will pay $1 if a press statement is released by the Police or other responsible authority stating that Ms Boag has been charged in relation to the ACC report, or if there are media reports in www.nzherald.co.nz and www.stuff.co.nz that Ms Boag has been charged in relation to the ACC report.

The contract will pay $0 if there is a press statement released by the Police or other responsible authority that states that no charges will be laid against Ms Boag in relation to the ACC report.

If a person is charged in relation to the ACC report and receives name suppression, the contract will remain open until name suppression is lifted. If Ms Boag is the person who received name suppression, then the contract will pay $1 based on the time the charges are laid, not when the name suppression was lifted.

If, by 1 December 2012, no charges have been laid in relation to the ACC report, then the contract will close at $0.

If there is any doubt, iPredict reserves the right to enquire of the Police.

iPredict’s judgement is final.

Dates and times in NZ time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 20 Mar 2012 01:49:27 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16495,16495#msg-16495 MARMITE TO BE RATIONED IN NZ (2 replies) /forum/read.php?4,16495,16495#msg-16495
Long description:
This contract pays 1$ if, before 1 August 2012, Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises publicly announces or confirms to iPredict, that restrictions are being placed on the amount of Marmite a customer may purchase on a single visit to a Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarkets.

Judging Criteria

The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood that stocks of Marmite will need to be rationed in New Zealand supermarkets, following reports of manufacturing difficulties as at [www.nzherald.co.nz], [www.stuff.co.nz] and [www.radionz.co.nz]

The contract refers solely to:

• the Marmite product manufactured in New Zealand by Sanitarium. It does NOT refer to any substitute product, such as Vegemite or Marmite manufactured outside of New Zealand.
• announcement(s) or confirmation(s) made by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises. It does NOT refer to announcements or confirmations made by Sanitarium or by individual supermarkets.
• restrictions at Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarkets. It does not refer to any other brands owned by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises, such as Write Price or Shoprite

The contract pays $1 IF AND ONLY IF Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises announce or confirm formal restrictions on the amount of Marmite a customer may purchase on a single visit to a supermarket and not to restrictions caused by a lack of stock. That is, should consumers be unable to purchase Marmite because stocks have run out, the terms of the contract are NOT satisfied.

Formal restrictions, that are announced or confirmed by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises, need affect only ONE Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarket in New Zealand. That is, the restrictions need not be nationwide across a brand.

The contract is unaffected by restrictions placed on the sale of Marmite for discounting purposes (eg, an announcement that the product will sell for lower than its usual price but with consumers restricted on the number of jars they can buy).

The following will be used by iPredict to determine the closure price of the contract:
• a media statement issued by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises announcing restrictions that meet the tests for this contract
• media reports at www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz reporting an authoritative spokesperson for Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises announcing or confirming restrictions that meet the tests for this contract
• inquiries by iPredict to Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises which lead to authoritative confirmation of the presence of lack of restrictions that meet the tests for this contract

In all cases, iPredict’s decision on the closure price shall be final and, in trading this contract, traders acknowledge some degree of measurement uncertainty.
All dates and times are in NZ time.

Image sourced from trademe.co.nz]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:59:29 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16402,16402#msg-16402 POLICE BUDGET 2012/13 (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,16402,16402#msg-16402
NZ Police Budget to be cut by more than 8%

SYMBOL: POLICE.BUDGET.D8+

Start Date: 9 March 12
Close Date: 28 May 12

Long Description
This contract pays $1 if Vote: Police in the New Zealand Government’s 2012/13 Budget is less than $1,362,283,560.

Judging Criteria:
The contract will be based on “Total Departmental Output Expenses” / “Departmental Transactions Budget” published in:
1) the “Appropriations for Output Expenses” table in the “Summary Tables” of “The Estimates of Appropriations for the Government of New Zealand for the Year Ending 30 June 2013” expected to be released by the Minister of Finance and Treasury on Budget Day 2012 (24 May); and / or
2) The “Total Departmental Output Expenses” in the “Vote Police” summary in “The Estimates of Appropriations for the Government of New Zealand for the Year Ending 30 June 2013” expected to be released by the Minister of Finance and Treasury on Budget Day 2012 (24 May)

The comparable number for Budget 2011/12 was $1,480,743,000 published in:
1) column 3 on page xxii of The Estimates of Appropriations 2011/12 B.5 at [www.treasury.govt.nz] and
2) column 3 on page 251 of The Estimates of Appropriations 2011/12 B.5 at [www.treasury.govt.nz]
If no comparable number is released on Budget Day 2012, iPredict will seek advice from the Treasury and/or the Office of the Minister of Finance on the comparable number that should be used to determine the close price of this contract.
The contract is unaffected if Budget Day 2012 occurs on a day other than 24 May.
The contract shall be closed on the Monday following Budget Day.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Thu, 08 Mar 2012 21:09:25 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16278,16278#msg-16278 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION VOTE SHARE – TWO PARTY PREFERRED (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,16278,16278#msg-16278 What share of the two party preferred vote will the Australian Labor Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB
Contract Info

· Symbol: 2PARTYPREF.2013.LAB

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the two party preferred vote won by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to the two party preferred vote for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, an ALP two party preferred vote share of 50.12% will produce a payout of $0.5012 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the two party preferred vote will the Liberal/National Coalition win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.COALITION
Contract Info

· Symbol: 2PARTYPREF.2013.COALITION

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the two party preferred vote won by the Liberal/National Coalition for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to the two party preferred vote for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, an ALP two party preferred vote share of 50.12% will produce a payout of $0.5012 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If Liberal/National Coalition breaks up or is renamed, this contract will follow the main party or group of parties reported by the Australian Electoral Commission in the two party preferred vote other than the Australian Labor Party.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:51:05 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16277,16277#msg-16277 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION VOTE SHARE – FIRST PREFERENCES SMALL PARTIES (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,16277,16277#msg-16277 What share of the first preferences will the Australian National Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.NAT
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.NAT

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 10 cents for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian National Party for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a National Party vote share of 3.73 % will produce a payout of $0.373 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Australian Family First Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.NAT
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.FF

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 10 cents for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Family First for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Family First Party vote share of 2.25 % will produce a payout of $0.252 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:44:05 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16276,16276#msg-16276 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION VOTE SHARE – FIRST PREFERENCES MAIN PARTIES (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,16276,16276#msg-16276 What share of the first preferences will the Australian Labor Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, an ALP vote share of 37.99 % will produce a payout of $0.3799 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Liberal Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LIB
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.LIB

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Liberal Party for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au] It includes only votes for the Liberal Party and not for its coalition partners.

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Liberal vote share of 30.46% will produce a payout of $0.3046 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Green Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.GREEN
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.GREEN

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Green Party for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Green vote share of 11.76% will produce a payout of $0.1176 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Liberal National Party of Queensland win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LNPQ
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.LNPQ

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Liberal National Party of Queensland for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au] It includes only votes for the Liberal National Party of Queensland and not for its coalition partners.

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Liberal National Party of Queensland vote share of 9.12% will produce a payout of $0.0912 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will ALL OTHER PARTIES win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.OTHER
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.OTHER

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays $1 less the payouts for FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB, FIRSTPREFS.2013.LIB, FIRSTPREFS.2013.GREEN and FIRSTPREFS.2013.LNPQ


Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:40:37 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,16157,16157#msg-16157 OIO to approve Pengxin offer second time around (3 replies) /forum/read.php?4,16157,16157#msg-16157
This contract pays $1 if the Overseas Investment Office recommends approving the Pengxin Group offer for Crafar farms after reconsidering its advice to the Minister. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


This contract refers to advice from Overseas Investment Office arising from a direction given to it by the Minister on or around 15 February 2012 to reconsider its advice regarding the Pengxin offer for Crafar farms.

This contract will ignore conditions attached to an approval except where:

a) the conditions, in iPredict’s sole opinion, will be manifestly unable to be met and thus have the effect of preventing Pengxin purchasing Crafar farms; and/or

b) the conditions expressly prevent Pengxin having 100% ownership of the Crafar farms specified in its offer

If Pengxin submits a modified offer that has the effect of restarting the OIO approval process and before the OIO gives its reconsidered advice, then this contract will close at $0. If Pengxin submits a modified offer that does not have the effect of restarting the OIO approval process, then this contract will follow the OIO advice to the Minister on the modified offer.

If Pengxin formally withdraws its offer prior to OIO providing advice to the Minister then this contract will close at $0.

This contract is not affected by OIO advice to the Minister before the launch of this contract.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 03 Apr 2012 00:41:32 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15837,15837#msg-15837 World Growth (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,15837,15837#msg-15837
GROWTH.WORLD.2012.1


World growth to be MORE than 1.0% in 2012




Long Description

This contract pays $1 if the IMF World Economic Outlook Update reports that World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates is MORE than 1.0% in 2012. Otherwise this contract pays $0.




Judging Criteria

The measure will be based on World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates, which can be found here.

This contract will be judged based on the published actual results from the IMF World Economic Outlook.


This contract is NOT based on estimates or projected results.


This contract will close following the announcement by IMF of the 2012 year.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 01 Feb 2012 20:37:49 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15580,15580#msg-15580 Maori Party to win no electorate seats in 2014 (or next) General Election (7 replies) /forum/read.php?4,15580,15580#msg-15580
ES.2014.MAORI.0


Maori Party to win NO Electorate seats in the next General Election

This contract pays $1 if the Maori Party wins NO Electorate seats in the next General Election. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


This contract refers to ELECTORATE SEATS and not to list seats, for example, if the Maori Party get 5% of the Party Vote, but win no Electorate seats, this contract will close at $1.

Votes cast in the General and Maori Electorate seats are relevant to this contact. This contract will be closed based on Official Results Declared (including Special Votes) BEFORE RECOUNTS from the next General Election.

In this contract; “next” refers to the first New Zealand General Election after this contract's launch. If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party. If this party announces it will not stand at the next election, or the party is disbanded, then this contract will immediately close at $0. In the event that the Maori Party formally merges with another party, this contract will follow the merged party.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:22 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15524,15524#msg-15524 Stuart Nash to be announced as next Labour Party Chief of Staff (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,15524,15524#msg-15524
This contract pays $1 if the next NZ Labour Party Chief of Staff is Stuart Nash. Otherwise this contract pays $0.




If no permanent NZ Labour Party Chief of Staff is named by 1 January 2013 this contract will close at $0.

Announcement must be made by a person holding suitable authority.

This contract pays out based on the person that replaces [] as NZ Labour Party Chief of Staff.

If, after the launch of this contract, [] is re-appointed to a permanent position as NZ Labour Party Chief of Staff then this contract will immediately close at $0.

The appointment must be a full appointment. This contract is not affected by the announcement of a temporary, interim or acting Chief of Staff.

The contract pays on announcement, not when a Chief of Staff takes up the position.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 09 Jan 2012 23:05:48 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15513,15513#msg-15513 2013 Mayoralties (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,15513,15513#msg-15513 Julie Hardaker, Hamilton
Celia Wade-Brown, Wellington
Bob Parker, Christchurch
Dave Cull, Dunedin
Tim Shadbolt, Invercargill


Idea is to start with incumbents and add opponents and bundle nearer to election day.

Has any listed incumbent announced they will not be seeking re-election next year?

Draft wording:

Celia Wade-Brown to be elected Mayor of Wellington

This contract pays $1 if Celia Wade-Brown is elected Mayor of Wellington in the next local body elections.



This closes will immediately close at $0 if Ms Wade-Brown definitively announces she will not be a candidate for the Wellington mayoralty at the next local body elections.

Closes at $0 if Ms Wade-Brown departs from the Wellington mayoralty for any reason prior to the end of this term and does not definitively indicate she will be a candidate for Mayor of Wellington in the next local body elections within 48 hours of the announcement of her departure.

In the event the Wellington City Council amalgamates with one or more other city councils, this contract will follow the amalgamated body. If Wellington City Council is re-named this contract will follow the re-named body.

For the purposes of this contract, “next local body elections” refers to the first local body election which decides the Wellington mayoralty which occurs after the launch of this contract.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:27:07 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15408,15408#msg-15408 North Korea contracts (8 replies) /forum/read.php?4,15408,15408#msg-15408

North Korea to invade South Korea before 1 March 2012

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 March 2012, at least 1000 land-based soldiers of the Republic of North Korea Army enter South Korea territory on hostile terms. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


This contract will close based on media reports of the size of any invading North Korean army.

This contract is tied to the timing of any invading force crossing what is at the launch of this contract South Korea territory.

“Land-based soldiers” refers to all land-based military personnel and excludes military personnel in South Korea air and sea space.

For the purposes of this contract, ‘hostile’ means an act of war or aggression against the interests of the receiving country.

South Korea territory means the mainland of South Korea which includes capital Seoul, excludes South Korean embassies and consulates in any country including North Korea, and excludes island territories of South Korea.




United States to declare war on North Korea before 1 March 2012

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 March 2012, the United States formally declares war on North Korea. Otherwise this contract pays $0.




President Obama to announce, before 1 March 2012, he will visit North Korea

This contract pays $1 is it is announced, before 1 March 2012, that President Obama will personally visit the mainland territory of the North Korea

This contract is tied to the timing of the announcement, not the timing of any visit.

Announcement must be definitive that a visit will occur.

Announcement must state that President Obama will visit the mainland territory of North Korea that includes Pyongyang. This contract is not affected by announcement of a visit by President Obama to a North Korean consulate or embassy in any country.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 15 Apr 2012 07:05:30 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15395,15395#msg-15395 Cathedral Square access restored by 1 May (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,15395,15395#msg-15395


This contract close based on the timing of the resumption of general access, not on the timing of any announcement. iPredict will not close this contract before general access is actually restored.


This contract will immediately close at $0 if it is definitively announced by any person holding suitable authority that pedestrian access will NOT be permanently restored to Cathedral Square before 1 May 2012.


“Pedestrian” means a member of the general public travelling on foot and without any requirement for special authorisation or a guide. This contract is not affected by the presence of security personnel.


“Permanently restored” means that there are no plans announced to suspend general access to Cathedral Square in future. For this contract to pay $1, there must be no access restriction at any hour. A curfew, for example, that is not removed before 1 May 2012 will cause this contract to close at $0.


Dates and times NZ time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 18 Dec 2011 23:16:05 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15388,15388#msg-15388 Iowa Republican primary (2 replies) /forum/read.php?4,15388,15388#msg-15388
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus


This contract pays $1 if Mitt Romney wins the 2012 Iowa Caucus for the US Republican Party presidential nomination. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


This contract will close after a) at least three mainstream media sources report the officially declared winner of the Iowa Caucus b) there is, in iPredict’s sole view, no plausible likelihood that the result of this primary will be changed by recount or other legal challenge.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 18 Dec 2011 23:24:26 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15198,15198#msg-15198 Winston Peters to first be ordered to leave the House (5 replies) /forum/read.php?4,15198,15198#msg-15198
Winston Peters to be ordered to leave the House of Representatives by the Speaker or other presiding officer before 31 December 2011


This contract pays $1 if, before 31 December 2011, Winston Peters is ordered to leave the House of Representatives by the Speaker or other presiding officer. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


Judging:
This contract will close at the end of the last session the House is scheduled or expected to sit before the start of 31 December 2011.

This contract refers only to events which occur after this contract’s launch.

This contract is not affected by whether the House is in session.

Dates and times New Zealand time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Fri, 09 Dec 2011 02:51:11 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15164,15164#msg-15164 Carbon price contracts (2 replies) /forum/read.php?4,15164,15164#msg-15164
Long Description: This contract pays $1 if the closing bid price for spot New Zealand Units (NZUs) is $9.50 to NZ$9.99 (inclusive) on Thursday 8 December 2011, as reported by Westpac Institutional Bank’s “Morning Report” on Friday 9 December 2011. Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging criteria:

1) The bid price quoted in Westpac Institutional Bank’s “Morning Report” on Friday 9 December 2011 shall be definitive. (see here and here for recent examples)
2) If no Westpac Institutional Bank’s “Morning Report” is published on Friday 9 December 2011 then iPredict shall make enquiries of Westpac Institutional Bank as to what the closing bid price was on Thursday 8 December 2011.
3) If Westpac Institutional Bank is unable to provide any advice on what the closing bid price was on Thursday 8 December 2011, then the contract shall close at $0.20c

Suggest following ranges: below $9.00
$9.00 to $9.49
$9.50 to $9.99 (as above)
$10.00 to $10.49
$10.50 to $10.99
$11 or above]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Fri, 09 Dec 2011 01:38:14 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,15122,15122#msg-15122 David Bain compensation (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,15122,15122#msg-15122
Justice Binnie to report finding “extraordinary circumstances” in the David Bain case

This contract pays $1 if Justice Binnie, in his final report to the Minister of Justice or another member of the Government, finds there are “extraordinary circumstances” in the David Bain case. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


Judging:
In the event the judgement is reserved or withheld, this contract will stay open until Justice Binnie’s final report is released.

In the event Justice Binnie is replaced this contract will follow the final report of his replacement.

If it is announced that there will be no report on this matter, then this contract will immediately close at $0.

If Justice Binnie expresses no view either way on “extraordinary circumstances” then this contract will close at $0.

This contract is not affected by any decision on compensation.



Contract #2: innocence on balance of probabilities

Justice Binnie to report finding David Bain innocent on balance of probabilities


This contract pays $1 if Justice Binnie, in his final report to the Minister of Justice or another member of the Government, finds David Bain innocent on balance of probabilities. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging:
In the event the judgement is reserved or withheld, this contract will stay open until Justice Binnie’s final report is released.

In the event Justice Binnie is replaced this contract will follow the final report of his replacement.

If it is announced that there will be no report on this matter, then this contract will immediately close at $0.

If Justice Binnie expresses no view either way on whether Mr Bain is innocent on the balance of probabilities then this contract will close at $0.

If Justice Binnie’s report is withheld or reserved, a decision to award Mr Bain compensation will cause this contract to close at $1.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 04 Dec 2011 22:54:51 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14870,14870#msg-14870 "Grand coalition" (4 replies) /forum/read.php?4,14870,14870#msg-14870
This contract pays $1 if the National and Labour Parties formally agree to either SUPPORT or ABSTAIN on Confidence and Supply votes of the other after the 2011 General Election (important: see Judging Criteria for details). Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging:
This contract pays $1 if the Labour Party formally agrees with the National Party, or the National Party formally agrees with the Labour Party, to either SUPPORT or ABSTAIN on Confidence and Supply votes of the other party.

Formal agreement includes coalition agreement, confidence and supply arrangement or abstention arrangement.

This contract pays out based on a formally signed agreement between the parties, and not on any prior announcement.

This contract will immediately close at $0 if a) either party definitively announces no agreement on Confidence and Supply will be made with the other party; or b) a new General Election is announced; or c) National or Labour are not in the next Parliament.

This contract will close at $0 if in iPredict's sole view there is no prospect of an agreement on Confidence and Supply between these parties.

To pay $1 any formal agreement must not be proposed to last less than 12 months. If no end date is specified or the agreement covers the Parliamentary term then iPredict will take this to mean more than 12 months.

If any agreement between the Labour Party and National Party is significantly ambiguous on Confidence and Supply then this contract will close based on the first vote on Confidence or Supply. If no Labour MPs vote against National, or no National MPs vote against Labour, on Confidence or Supply, then this contract will close $1; otherwise $0.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Thu, 24 Nov 2011 04:42:08 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14828,14828#msg-14828 Voter turnout (no replies) /forum/read.php?4,14828,14828#msg-14828

TURNOUT.GENERAL



Voter turnout in General Electorates



This contract pays $0.01 for each 1% of Voter Turnout in GENERAL ELECTORATES in the 2011 General Election. For example, Voter Turnout of 80.88% will cause this contract to close at $0.8088 per share.



For the purposes of this contract:

Voter Turnout is defined as: Total Votes Cast/Electors on Master Roll.

Total Votes Cast is defined as: Ordinary Votes + Special Votes + Informal Votes + Disallowed Votes.

For reference, in 2008 [http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/e9/html/e9_part9_1.html] Total Votes Cast in the General Electorates were 2,233,146 and electors on Master Roll were 2,761,093, turn out = 80.88%



This contract will close based on Official Results Declared.







TURNOUT.MAORI



Voter turnout in Maori Electorates



This contract pays $0.01 for each 1% of Voter Turnout in MAORI ELECTORATES in the 2011 General Election. For example, Voter Turnout of 62.41% will cause this contract to close at $0.6241 per share.



For the purposes of this contract:

Voter Turnout is defined as: Total Votes Cast/Electors on Master Roll.

Total Votes Cast is defined as: Ordinary Votes + Special Votes + Informal Votes + Disallowed Votes.

For reference, in 2008 [http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/e9/html/e9_part9_1.html] Total Votes Cast in Maori Electorates were 143,334 and electors on Master Roll were 229,666, turn out = 62.41%



This contract will close based on Official Results Declared.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 22 Nov 2011 22:55:25 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14821,14821#msg-14821 Confidence and supply agreements (2 replies) /forum/read.php?4,14821,14821#msg-14821
Greens to agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for National
Greens to agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for Labour
Greens to not agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply either National or Labour
Will repeat for other minor parties

Draft contract:

Greens to agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for National

Symbol: GREENS.NATS

Long Description: This contract pays $1 if the Green Party formally agrees with the National Party to either SUPPORT or ABSTAIN on Confidence and Supply votes after the 2011 General Election (important: see Judging Criteria for details). Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria:

Formal agreement includes coalition agreement, confidence and supply arrangement or abstention arrangement.

This contract pays out based on a formally signed agreement between the parties, and not on any prior announcement.

This contract will immediately close at $0 if either party definitively announces no agreement on Confidence and Supply will be made with the other party.

This contract will immediately close at $0 if a) a new General Election is announced; or b) Greens agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for Labour; or c) Greens are not in the next Parliament.

This contract is unaffected by which party has more MPs (i.e. this contract applies to Greens support for National and National support for Greens).

To pay $1 any formal agreement must not be proposed to last less than 12 months. If no end date is specified or the agreement covers the Parliamentary term then iPredict will take this to mean more than 12 months.

If any agreement between the National Party and Green Party is significantly ambiguous on Confidence and Supply agreement between National and Greens then this contract will close based on the first vote on Confidence or Supply. If no Greens vote against National on Confidence or Supply then this contract will close $1; otherwise $0.

For reference, post-2008 election agreements between National and the Act, Maori and UnitedFuture parties would all have paid $1 whereas the Memorandum of Understanding between National and Greens would have paid $0.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 22 Nov 2011 22:15:27 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14797,14797#msg-14797 US Senate to ratify Trans Pacific Partnership before 1 July 2013 (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,14797,14797#msg-14797
US Senate to approve TPP before 1 July 2013

Long Description: This contract pays $1 if the United States Senate approves a resolution of ratification of the Trans Pacific Partnership, which must include tariff reduction and near-comprehensive service coverage (see below), before 1 July 2013. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria:

The contract pays out $1 if at least two thirds of the United States Senators present vote to approve a resolution of ratification of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) before 1 July 2013, as described at [www.senate.gov] under Article 2 Section 2 of the Constitution of the United States of America (http://www.senate.gov/civics/constitution_item/constitution.htm#a2_sec2 )

The contract is not affected by whether or when instruments of ratification are formally exchanged between the United States and the other country(s) involved in the TPP.

The TPP for which Senators approve a resolution of ratification must include the Unites States and New Zealand, and at least five of Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Peru, Singapore, and Viet Nam. The contract is unaffected if other countries are part of the agreement.

The TPP for which Senators approve a resolution of ratification must:
1. For goods, include an agreed and legally binding schedule of tariff reductions covering all goods traded between the parties for which tariffs still apply at the launch of the contract (approximately 11,000 tariff lines) AND

2. For services, operate on a “negative list” basis, where all service sectors are covered to ensure comprehensive coverage but where allows countries may have or be able to negotiate specific exceptions to commitments in specific service sectors.

Information on the TPP can be found at [mfat.govt.nz] and [www.ustr.gov]

Information on the TPP can be found at [mfat.govt.nz] and [www.ustr.gov]

iPredict reserves the right to delay closing in order to seek advice on whether the terms of this contract are met. By trading this stock traders agree iPredict’s decision is final.

Dates and times US Eastern Standard Time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 23 Nov 2011 00:26:53 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14776,14776#msg-14776 "Baby girl" flyer to be referred before election day + apology (1 reply) /forum/read.php?4,14776,14776#msg-14776
Electoral Commission to announce, before Election Day, it has or will refer Labour Party or persons to Police over the “baby girl” flyer

This contract pays $1 if the Electoral Commission announces, before the start of Election Day, it has or will refer the Labour Party or one or more persons to Police over the “baby girl” flyer. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


The “baby girl” flyer refers to the flyer with the words “won’t be around to celebrate her 1st birthday” and the topic of this article [www.stuff.co.nz]

This contract is not affected by the reason for a referral of the matter by the Electoral Commission to Police.

To pay $1, Electoral Commission must announce before the start of 26 November 2011 it has or will refer the matter to Police.

Dates and times NZ time.



Phil Goff to apologise or express regret for the “baby girl” flyer before Election Day

This contract pays $1 if Phil Goff publicly apologises or expresses regret, before Election Day, for the “baby girl” flyer. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


TRADERS ON THIS CONTRACT ACKNOWLEDGE THE INHERENT SUBJECTIVITY OF THE QUESTION, AND THAT IPREDICT'S DECISION ON CLOSING PRICE IS FINAL.

For the purpose of this contract, “publicly apologises or expresses regret” includes phrases such as: I am appalled, take responsibility, apologise, regret that offence was taken, as well as Mr Goff’s agreement with such sentiment expressed by others.

The “baby girl” flyer refers to the flyer with the words “won’t be around to celebrate her 1st birthday” and the topic of this article [www.stuff.co.nz]

To pay $1, Mr Goff must publicly apologise or express regret before the start of 26 November 2011.

Dates and times NZ time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 21 Nov 2011 03:05:17 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14627,14627#msg-14627 What was discussed in the 'tea pot tape'? (13 replies) /forum/read.php?4,14627,14627#msg-14627
TAPE.NORELEASE
Tea Pot Tape to NOT be released before Election Day
This contract pays $1 if NEITHER transcript or audio of the ‘tea pot tape’ is released before election day. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.COMMENTS1
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks criticised Brash
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks (express or implied) critical of Don Brash and/or Don Brash’s leadership of ACT. Otherwise this contract pays $0. NOTE: Comments suggesting Brash should or will be replaced as leader of ACT post-election will NOT cause this contract to close at $1 (this is covered by contract TAPE.COMMENTS5).

TAPE.COMMENTS2
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks predict NZ likely to secure 5% party vote
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks predicting that New Zealand First is likely to secure 5% of the party vote. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.COMMENTS3
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks predict Greens secure lower party vote
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks predicting the Green Party will secure a lower party vote than current polls suggest and/or critical of them. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.COMMENTS4
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks discuss planned but unannounced policy initiatives
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks discussing policy initiatives they plan to implement after the election but which they had not referred to publicly at the time. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.COMMENTS5
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks suggest Brash should or will be replaced as ACT leader
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks (express or implied) suggesting that Don Brash should or will be replaced as leader of the ACT party following the election. Otherwise this contract pays $0. NOTE: Comments critical of Brash and/or his leadership will NOT cause this contract to close at $1 (this is covered by contract TAPE.COMMENTS1).

TAPE.COMMENTS6
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks critical of National Cabinet Ministers
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks critical of National Cabinet Ministers and/or their performance. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.COMMENTS7
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks critical of support party MPs (defined below)
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks (express or implied) critical of MPs who were members of the Maori Party, ACT, or United Future at the time of the recording. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.COMMENTS8
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks discussed future role for Banks and/or Brash
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio released before Election Day includes comments by Key and/or Banks discussing Banks and/or Brash’s future role in potential next Government. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

TAPE.NOCOMMENTS
Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks to record no comments as described in TAPE.COMMENTx contracts
This contract pays $1 if ‘tea pot tape’ transcript or audio recording is released before election day but does NOT include any comments by Key and/or Banks described in any TAPE.COMMENTx of these contracts. This contract will pay $0 if any TAPE.COMMENTx contract pays $1.





Judging statement for each contract:

TRADERS ON THIS CONTRACT ACKNOWLEDGE THE INHERENT SUBJECTIVITY OF THE QUESTION, AND THAT IPREDICT’S DECISION ON CLOSING PRICE IS FINAL.

For the purposes of this contract, ‘tea pot tape’ refers to an audio recording, or a copy, made by Bradley Ambrose at the meeting of John Key and John Banks at an Auckland cafe on Friday 11 November 2011.

This contract is affected only by audio or a transcript or quotes from a transcript released by any means (including leaked) between the launch of this contract and the start of the next Election Day. This contract is not affected by other sources, including conversation overhead by cafe patrons or assembled media, or what Banks or Key claim was said (except where they dispute the authenticity of the audio or transcript).

If audio or transcript or quotes from a transcript are suspected to be forged or mistaken then iPredict reserves the right to delay closing this contract indefinitely pending clarification.

For the purposes of this contract, a transcript is a written version of most or all the audible words recorded on the ‘tea pot tape’.

Transcript must be complete or near complete and published by an established body, which includes but is not limited to Herald On Sunday or another established media organisation, or an established political party.

'Cabinet Minister' means a MP who holds a Ministerial Warrant.

This contract is not bundled and multiple TAPE.COMMENTSx contracts may close at $1.

Dates and times in NZ time.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 15 Nov 2011 23:30:46 +0000
/forum/read.php?4,14511,14511#msg-14511 Next National Party leader (6 replies) /forum/read.php?4,14511,14511#msg-14511

NATLEAD.[NAME]

[Name] to be next National Party leader

This contract pays $1 if [Name] is announced as the next leader of the New Zealand National Party. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood the person named in this contract is the next Leader of the NZ National Party.

This contract will immediately close when a definitive announcement of an appointment of the next Leader of the National Party is announced by a person holding suitable authority.

This contract will immediately close at $0 if this person definitively announces their retirement from Parliament or it is certain that this person will be unable to be Leader for any reason.

If the National Party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.

In the event the National Party formally splits, then this contract will follow the post-split party named “National Party” or “National”. If both or neither parties are so-named, then this contract will follow the party which contains the current (or most recent) leader of the pre-split National Party. In the event neither party satisfies these conditions, this contract will close at $0.

If the National Party is disbanded then this contract will close at $0.

If the National Party formally merges with another party then this contract will follow the merged entity.

In the event N co-leaders are simultaneously appointed, and this candidate is among them, then this contract will close at $1/N.

In the event more than one Leader is simultaneously appointed to serve sequentially (one after the other) then this contract will pay out based on the first person to lead.

This contract pay out based on a permanent appointment to Leader and is not affected by interim or temporary appointments.

This contract is not affected by legal challenge, except where an appointment is announced as being conditional on the outcome of a legal challenge.

If an announcement is conditional, then those conditions must be met before this contract can close.

This contract will remain open until the next Leader of the National Party is announced. The closing date on this contract is included only due to this site’s code requirements and should be disregarded.

For the purposes of this contract, “next” refers to a person different to the National Party leader at the launch of this contract i.e. this contract is not affected by any the reappointment of John Key to Leader.]]>
admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 09 Nov 2011 23:28:28 +0000