iPredict Discussion Forums - Draft Stock Definitions Have your say on the definition of upcoming stocks /forum/list.php?4 Thu, 06 Apr 2017 15:58:46 +0000 Phorum 5.2.20 /forum/read.php?4,19412,32958#msg-32958 Re: Scottish Independence /forum/read.php?4,19412,32958#msg-32958 Andrew34 Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:12:43 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,19412,19412#msg-19412 Scottish Independence /forum/read.php?4,19412,19412#msg-19412
Long Description

This contract will close at $1 if a Scottish referendum held to make Scotland Independant of the United Kingdom passes before 1 January 2015. Otherwise the contract closes at $0

Judging Statement

In order for this contract to make Scotland independant, the referendum must propose to make Scotland a state no longer part of the United Kingdom. Wording such as 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' or similar would suffice if the referendum were not tied to any spesific written proposal

If the referendum is explicitly tied to a written proposal (including draft legislation) for independence this must eventually include or be a direct precurser to Scotland no longer holding seats in the UK House of Commons, and the UK Parliament no longer having law making power in Scotland. Any referendum held under the 'Edinburgh Agreement' (background here [www.independent.co.uk] likely qualify, however iPredict's decision on this matter is final.

Whether or not the referendum passes will be determined by the terms of the referendum, and/or legislation which creates the referendum. It may be that the referendum requires a 'simple majority' of 50%+1 votes to pass, or a higher 'super majority'. If there is any doubt then a 50%+1 simple majority test will be used to determine if the referendum passes.

If a referendum is held on Scottish Independence and that referendum fails to pass, and in iPredict's judgement there is no chance of another referendum being held before 1 January 2015 then this contract will immediately close at $0.

If no referendum is held before 1 Jan 2015 then this contract will close at $0.

iPredict's judgement is final]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 02 Dec 2012 23:25:57 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,17081,17093#msg-17093 Re: How many more pokie machines? /forum/read.php?4,17081,17093#msg-17093 admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:23 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,17081,17092#msg-17092 Re: How many more pokie machines? /forum/read.php?4,17081,17092#msg-17092 eeyore Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:51:10 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,17081,17089#msg-17089 Re: How many more pokie machines? /forum/read.php?4,17081,17089#msg-17089 admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:19:51 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,17081,17088#msg-17088 Re: How many more pokie machines? /forum/read.php?4,17081,17088#msg-17088 eeyore Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 17 Apr 2012 23:15:55 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,17081,17085#msg-17085 Re: How many more pokie machines? /forum/read.php?4,17081,17085#msg-17085 Lanthanide Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 17 Apr 2012 22:58:31 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,17081,17081#msg-17081 How many more pokie machines? /forum/read.php?4,17081,17081#msg-17081
SKY.DEAL.POKIES

Short Description:
How many new pokies will SKYCITY be allowed (as a percentage of 500)?

Long Description:
This contract will pay 10c for every 50 extra pokie machines SKYCITY is allowed at its Auckland casino as part of a deal with the New Zealand Government over the construction of a National Convention Centre. The payout is capped at $1 (for 500 or more pokie machines). PLEASE READ THE JUDGING CRITERIA.

Judging Criteria:
The contract concerns the outcome of negotiations between the New Zealand Government and SKYCITY announced by the Prime Minister on 12 June 2011 (see [beehive.govt.nz]) and not to any other initiative on gambling legislation or regulation.
The purpose of this contract is to forecast the maximum number of pokie machines that SKYCITY will be allowed to have as a result of any new legislation and/or regulations negotiated with the New Zealand Government, over and above those allowed by existing legislation and/or regulations.
It will pay in New Zealand cents to one decimal place. That is, if SKYCITY is allowed 387 new pokie machines, the contract shall close at 77.4c.
The contract will be closed following an announcement of a deal that meets the tests outlined in iPredict’s contracts at [www.ipredict.co.nz] . It does not matter whether or not legislation and/or regulations are subsequently amended or whether or not SKYCITY decides to proceed with installing all or any of the new pokie machines.
If the deal between the New Zealand Government and SKYCITY provides for legislation and/or regulations which see a progressive increase or decrease of the number of pokie machines SKYCITY is allowed to have at its Auckland casino, the contract’s closure price will be based on the HIGHEST number of pokie machines SKYCITY will ever be allowed under the deal.
If it is not clear from the announcement the price at which this contract should close, iPredict will make inquiries of relevant authorities such as but not limited to SKYCITY, the New Zealand Government, the Regulations Review Committee of the New Zealand House of Representatives, the Department of Internal Affairs or other government departments. Traders should note that it is possible this process may require the use of formal mechanisms including but not limited to the Official Information Act and this may cause a significant delay in closing the contract. Such information will be provided to traders for comment before iPredict makes a judgment on the closure price.
If, despite these efforts, iPredict is unable to determine in good faith an appropriate closure price within one year from the date of an announcement that meets the terms of the contracts at [www.ipredict.co.nz] this contract shall be closed at 85c which is the midpoint between the opening positions of the two parties reported by 3News at [www.3news.co.nz] and represents 425 extra pokie machines.
If there is no outcome to the negotiations by 1 January 2014, or if the Prime Minister announces definitively and finally that no deal will be done with SKYCITY, the contract will close immediately at $0.
iPredict’s judgment shall be final.
All dates and times are New Zealand time.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 17 Apr 2012 22:31:24 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,15408,16995#msg-16995 Re: North Korea contracts /forum/read.php?4,15408,16995#msg-16995 www.ipredict.co.nz]]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 15 Apr 2012 07:05:30 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,15408,16990#msg-16990 Re: North Korea contracts /forum/read.php?4,15408,16990#msg-16990 Lanthanide Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 15 Apr 2012 03:27:57 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,15408,16986#msg-16986 Re: North Korea contracts /forum/read.php?4,15408,16986#msg-16986 The nuke test one is at [www.ipredict.co.nz]
and leadership ones will be launched at [www.ipredict.co.nz]]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Sat, 14 Apr 2012 22:32:47 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,15408,16981#msg-16981 Re: North Korea contracts /forum/read.php?4,15408,16981#msg-16981
In the meantime:
Quote

Experts say satellite imagery of North Korea's north-east Punggye-ri site, where previous nuclear tests were conducted, shows deep tunnelling, and other preparations may be under way for a third nuclear test, possibly based on the country's yet-unproven highly enriched uranium program.

''A nuclear test next month is a virtual certainty,'' said Marcus Noland, a North Korea expert at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
[www.smh.com.au]]]> Lanthanide Draft Stock Definitions Sat, 14 Apr 2012 20:04:48 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16774,16820#msg-16820 Re: Excise taxes on smokes and booze /forum/read.php?4,16774,16820#msg-16820 www.ipredict.co.nz]]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Sat, 07 Apr 2012 09:56:00 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16774,16774#msg-16774 Excise taxes on smokes and booze /forum/read.php?4,16774,16774#msg-16774
SHORT DESCRIPTION: Govt to increase excise duties on tobacco in 2012/13

LONG DESCRIPTION: This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2013, the Government announces that excise duties on tobacco products will be increased above the rate of inflation at any time during the 2012/13 financial year; otherwise it pays $0.

JUDGING CRITERIA: The contract pays based on the timing of an announcement. An announcement must be in a formal ministerial media statement that is published on www.beehive.govt.nz before 1 January 2013. The media statement must announce - explicitly or implicitly - that excise duties will be increased by more than the rate of inflation from any date in the 2012/13 financial year (which ends on 30 June 2013). The contract will close on such an announcement. It does not matter if the decision to increase excise duties is later revsersed before or after implemenation. All dates and times are New Zealand time.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 04 Apr 2012 22:48:11 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16732,16755#msg-16755 Re: US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional /forum/read.php?4,16732,16755#msg-16755 www.ipredict.co.nz] with high liquidity]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Wed, 04 Apr 2012 03:17:54 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16732,16732#msg-16732 US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional /forum/read.php?4,16732,16732#msg-16732
Long Description:

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2013, a majority of the United States Supreme Court rules that the "individual mandate" provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 is unconstitutional; otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria:

In trading this contract, traders acknowledge potential differences of opinion over the interpretation of court judgments and accept that iPredict's decision on the closure price will be final.

"Individual mandate" refers to a requirement in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 for citizens to purchase health insurance.

For the contract to pay $1, a majority of the Court must find that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and therefore unable to be imposed. Justices may give different reasons for finding the individual mandate to be unconsitutional - it is their final conclusion as to its constititionality and the effect of this finding that matters.

If there is any doubt about whether or not a majority has found that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and therefore unable to be imposed, iPredict will be guided by its own analysis of media coverage of expert legal opinions in The New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC.

If a majority of the Supreme Court finds that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 does not contain an "individual mandate", the contract shall close at $0, whether or not the court rules that such a mandate would be unconstitutional.

All dates and times are in NZT.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 03 Apr 2012 01:05:36 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16157,16730#msg-16730 Re: OIO to approve Pengxin offer second time around /forum/read.php?4,16157,16730#msg-16730 admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 03 Apr 2012 00:41:32 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16157,16691#msg-16691 Re: OIO to approve Pengxin offer second time around /forum/read.php?4,16157,16691#msg-16691
Now may be the time to do it, if it is going to be: [www.stuff.co.nz]]]> Lanthanide Draft Stock Definitions Fri, 30 Mar 2012 00:27:00 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16546,16636#msg-16636 Re: Inquiry to be announced into Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister /forum/read.php?4,16546,16636#msg-16636 admin Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 26 Mar 2012 20:34:09 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16546,16548#msg-16548 Re: Inquiry to be announced into Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister /forum/read.php?4,16546,16548#msg-16548
I had no idea the cabinet minister stocks had been launched because there wasn't any forum thread about them.]]> Lanthanide Draft Stock Definitions Thu, 22 Mar 2012 09:45:37 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16546,16546#msg-16546 Inquiry to be announced into Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister /forum/read.php?4,16546,16546#msg-16546
Long description

The contract pays $1 if the Prime Minister, the Auditor General, Hon. Judith Collins, or a person of official governmental authority announces a formal independent inquiry into Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister.

Judgment statement

The inquiry must be announced before 1 May 2012; if not, the contract will be closed at $0.

"Inquiry" means a formal investigation by a minister or a government agency, or an agent of a minister or a government agency such as a Queen’s Council or retired judge.

The inquiry must relate to Nick Smith’s conduct as ACC Minister. It does NOT include investigations into privacy issues by the Privacy Commissioner or by the police into the matters discussed in the report at [www.acc.co.nz]

All dates are in New Zealand time.

[www.ipredict.co.nz]]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Thu, 22 Mar 2012 02:55:59 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16522,16522#msg-16522 Police to launch investigation into ACC scandal /forum/read.php?4,16522,16522#msg-16522 Closure date: 1 November 2012

This contract will pay $1 if, before 1 October 2012, the NZ Police launch an investigation into matters discussed in the report by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to the Minister of ACC dated 16 March 2011 (sic) entitled “Situation Report - Breach of Privacy, Disclosure of Claims Data”, which can be found at [www.acc.co.nz]; otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging criteria

The purpose of this contract is to measure the probability that a possible police investigation, referred to at [www.nzherald.co.nz], is launched by the police in the next six months.

The contract will immediately close at $1 if:
• the NZ Police issue a media statement announcing or confirming that, prior to 1 October 2012, they launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
• both www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz report that an authoritative spokesperson for the NZ Police has announced or confirmed that, prior to 1 October 2012, the NZ Police launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
• the NZ Police confirm in writing to iPredict that, prior to 1 October 2012, they launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters

The contract will immediately close at $0 if:
• the NZ Police issue a media statement announcing or confirming that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
• both www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz report that an authoritative spokesperson for the NZ Police has announced or confirmed that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
• the NZ Police confirm in writing to iPredict that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters

If by 1 November 2012 iPredict has found it impossible to ascertain whether or not, before 1 October 2012, the NZ Police had launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters, the contract will close at $0.

“Relevant matters” are those discussed in the report dated 16 March 2011 (sic) entitled “Situation Report - Breach of Privacy, Disclosure of Claims Data” by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to the Minister of ACC, which can be found at [www.acc.co.nz]

If there is any doubt about whether a police investigation does cover these matters, iPredict will seek guidance from the NZ Police, ACC and/or a Queen’s Counsel. Having taken into account that guidance, iPredict’s decision on the closure price will be final.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 20 Mar 2012 06:13:12 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16517,16517#msg-16517 Charges ACC letter to Minister of ACC /forum/read.php?4,16517,16517#msg-16517 Bronwyn Pullar to be charged with an offence in relation to the ACC scandal by 1 December 2012

PULLAR.CHARGED

This contract will pay $1 if before 1 December 2012 Bronwyn Pullar is charged with an offence in relation to the matters discussed in a report from ACC to the Minister of ACC found at [www.acc.co.nz] ; otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging criteria
The contract will pay $1 if a press statement is released by the Police or other responsible authority stating that Ms Pullar has been charged in relation to the ACC report, or if there are media reports in www.nzherald.co.nz and www.stuff.co.nz that Ms Pullar has been charged in relation to the ACC report.

The contract will pay $0 if there is a press statement released by the Police or other responsible authority that states that no charges will be laid against Ms Pullar in relation to the ACC report.

If a person is charged in relation to the ACC report and receives name suppression, the contract will remain open until name suppression is lifted. If Ms Pullar is the person who received name suppression, then the contract will pay $1 based on the time the charges are laid, not when the name suppression was lifted.

If, by 1 December 2012, no charges have been laid in relation to the ACC report, then the contract will close at $0.

If there is any doubt, iPredict reserves the right to enquire of the Police.

iPredict’s judgement is final.

Dates and times in NZ time.




Michelle Boag to be charged with an offence in relation to the ACC scandal by 1 December 2012

BOAG.CHARGED

This contract will pay $1 if before 1 December 2012 Michelle Boag is charged with an offence in relation to the matters discussed in a report from ACC to the Minister of ACC found at [www.acc.co.nz] ; otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging criteria
The contract will pay $1 if a press statement is released by the Police or other responsible authority stating that Ms Boag has been charged in relation to the ACC report, or if there are media reports in www.nzherald.co.nz and www.stuff.co.nz that Ms Boag has been charged in relation to the ACC report.

The contract will pay $0 if there is a press statement released by the Police or other responsible authority that states that no charges will be laid against Ms Boag in relation to the ACC report.

If a person is charged in relation to the ACC report and receives name suppression, the contract will remain open until name suppression is lifted. If Ms Boag is the person who received name suppression, then the contract will pay $1 based on the time the charges are laid, not when the name suppression was lifted.

If, by 1 December 2012, no charges have been laid in relation to the ACC report, then the contract will close at $0.

If there is any doubt, iPredict reserves the right to enquire of the Police.

iPredict’s judgement is final.

Dates and times in NZ time.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 20 Mar 2012 01:49:27 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16495,16498#msg-16498 Re: MARMITE TO BE RATIONED IN NZ /forum/read.php?4,16495,16498#msg-16498
Would be a better one for play.ipredict.co.nz I'd say.]]> eeyore Draft Stock Definitions Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:59:29 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16495,16496#msg-16496 Re: MARMITE TO BE RATIONED IN NZ /forum/read.php?4,16495,16496#msg-16496 Lanthanide Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 18 Mar 2012 21:50:43 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16495,16495#msg-16495 MARMITE TO BE RATIONED IN NZ /forum/read.php?4,16495,16495#msg-16495
Long description:
This contract pays 1$ if, before 1 August 2012, Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises publicly announces or confirms to iPredict, that restrictions are being placed on the amount of Marmite a customer may purchase on a single visit to a Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarkets.

Judging Criteria

The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood that stocks of Marmite will need to be rationed in New Zealand supermarkets, following reports of manufacturing difficulties as at [www.nzherald.co.nz], [www.stuff.co.nz] and [www.radionz.co.nz]

The contract refers solely to:

• the Marmite product manufactured in New Zealand by Sanitarium. It does NOT refer to any substitute product, such as Vegemite or Marmite manufactured outside of New Zealand.
• announcement(s) or confirmation(s) made by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises. It does NOT refer to announcements or confirmations made by Sanitarium or by individual supermarkets.
• restrictions at Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarkets. It does not refer to any other brands owned by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises, such as Write Price or Shoprite

The contract pays $1 IF AND ONLY IF Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises announce or confirm formal restrictions on the amount of Marmite a customer may purchase on a single visit to a supermarket and not to restrictions caused by a lack of stock. That is, should consumers be unable to purchase Marmite because stocks have run out, the terms of the contract are NOT satisfied.

Formal restrictions, that are announced or confirmed by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises, need affect only ONE Countdown, PAK'nSAVE, and/or New World supermarket in New Zealand. That is, the restrictions need not be nationwide across a brand.

The contract is unaffected by restrictions placed on the sale of Marmite for discounting purposes (eg, an announcement that the product will sell for lower than its usual price but with consumers restricted on the number of jars they can buy).

The following will be used by iPredict to determine the closure price of the contract:
• a media statement issued by Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises announcing restrictions that meet the tests for this contract
• media reports at www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz reporting an authoritative spokesperson for Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises announcing or confirming restrictions that meet the tests for this contract
• inquiries by iPredict to Foodstuffs and/or Progressive Enterprises which lead to authoritative confirmation of the presence of lack of restrictions that meet the tests for this contract

In all cases, iPredict’s decision on the closure price shall be final and, in trading this contract, traders acknowledge some degree of measurement uncertainty.
All dates and times are in NZ time.

Image sourced from trademe.co.nz]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Sun, 18 Mar 2012 21:38:42 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16402,16402#msg-16402 POLICE BUDGET 2012/13 /forum/read.php?4,16402,16402#msg-16402
NZ Police Budget to be cut by more than 8%

SYMBOL: POLICE.BUDGET.D8+

Start Date: 9 March 12
Close Date: 28 May 12

Long Description
This contract pays $1 if Vote: Police in the New Zealand Government’s 2012/13 Budget is less than $1,362,283,560.

Judging Criteria:
The contract will be based on “Total Departmental Output Expenses” / “Departmental Transactions Budget” published in:
1) the “Appropriations for Output Expenses” table in the “Summary Tables” of “The Estimates of Appropriations for the Government of New Zealand for the Year Ending 30 June 2013” expected to be released by the Minister of Finance and Treasury on Budget Day 2012 (24 May); and / or
2) The “Total Departmental Output Expenses” in the “Vote Police” summary in “The Estimates of Appropriations for the Government of New Zealand for the Year Ending 30 June 2013” expected to be released by the Minister of Finance and Treasury on Budget Day 2012 (24 May)

The comparable number for Budget 2011/12 was $1,480,743,000 published in:
1) column 3 on page xxii of The Estimates of Appropriations 2011/12 B.5 at [www.treasury.govt.nz] and
2) column 3 on page 251 of The Estimates of Appropriations 2011/12 B.5 at [www.treasury.govt.nz]
If no comparable number is released on Budget Day 2012, iPredict will seek advice from the Treasury and/or the Office of the Minister of Finance on the comparable number that should be used to determine the close price of this contract.
The contract is unaffected if Budget Day 2012 occurs on a day other than 24 May.
The contract shall be closed on the Monday following Budget Day.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Thu, 08 Mar 2012 21:09:25 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16278,16278#msg-16278 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION VOTE SHARE – TWO PARTY PREFERRED /forum/read.php?4,16278,16278#msg-16278 What share of the two party preferred vote will the Australian Labor Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB
Contract Info

· Symbol: 2PARTYPREF.2013.LAB

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the two party preferred vote won by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to the two party preferred vote for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, an ALP two party preferred vote share of 50.12% will produce a payout of $0.5012 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the two party preferred vote will the Liberal/National Coalition win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.COALITION
Contract Info

· Symbol: 2PARTYPREF.2013.COALITION

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the two party preferred vote won by the Liberal/National Coalition for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to the two party preferred vote for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, an ALP two party preferred vote share of 50.12% will produce a payout of $0.5012 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If Liberal/National Coalition breaks up or is renamed, this contract will follow the main party or group of parties reported by the Australian Electoral Commission in the two party preferred vote other than the Australian Labor Party.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:51:05 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16277,16277#msg-16277 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION VOTE SHARE – FIRST PREFERENCES SMALL PARTIES /forum/read.php?4,16277,16277#msg-16277 What share of the first preferences will the Australian National Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.NAT
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.NAT

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 10 cents for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian National Party for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a National Party vote share of 3.73 % will produce a payout of $0.373 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Australian Family First Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.NAT
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.FF

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 10 cents for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Family First for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Family First Party vote share of 2.25 % will produce a payout of $0.252 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:44:05 +0000 /forum/read.php?4,16276,16276#msg-16276 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION VOTE SHARE – FIRST PREFERENCES MAIN PARTIES /forum/read.php?4,16276,16276#msg-16276 What share of the first preferences will the Australian Labor Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, an ALP vote share of 37.99 % will produce a payout of $0.3799 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Liberal Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LIB
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.LIB

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Liberal Party for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au] It includes only votes for the Liberal Party and not for its coalition partners.

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Liberal vote share of 30.46% will produce a payout of $0.3046 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Green Party win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.GREEN
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.GREEN

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Australian Green Party for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Green vote share of 11.76% will produce a payout of $0.1176 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will the Liberal National Party of Queensland win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.LNPQ
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.LNPQ

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays 1 cent for each 1% of the first preferences by party won by the Liberal National Party of Queensland for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election before recounts. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.
Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au] It includes only votes for the Liberal National Party of Queensland and not for its coalition partners.

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

This contract pays out to fractions of a percent. For example, a Liberal National Party of Queensland vote share of 9.12% will produce a payout of $0.0912 per share. This contract's payout per share is capped at $1.

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.



What share of the first preferences will ALL OTHER PARTIES win for the House of Representatives at the next Federal election?

FIRSTPREFS.2013.OTHER
Contract Info

· Symbol: FIRSTPREFS.2013.OTHER

Start Date: 29 Feb 12
Close Date: 31 Dec 13

Long Description

This contract pays $1 less the payouts for FIRSTPREFS.2013.LAB, FIRSTPREFS.2013.LIB, FIRSTPREFS.2013.GREEN and FIRSTPREFS.2013.LNPQ


Judging Criteria

The contract pays out based on the final official results BEFORE RECOUNTS published by the Australian Electoral Commission on its website at [www.aec.gov.au]

The contract refers solely to first preferences by party for the House of Representatives. Final comparable data after recounts for the 2010 Federal Election is at [results.aec.gov.au]

In this contract, "next" refers to the first Australian Federal election after this contract's launch.

If this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.]]> admin Draft Stock Definitions Tue, 28 Feb 2012 22:40:37 +0000