Cheap US politics stocks Update: these orders are no longer available.
I'll soon be going overseas for a couple of months, and want to reduce the size of my portfolio as much as possible before then. I have the following orders for a range of US stocks at very favourable prices for whoever picks them up.
Missouri Republican primary
See this thread for details, but Romney currently has 50% of the awarded delegates and is expected to get a much greater proportion of the remaining ones (Santorum is second with 30%, followed by Paul with 17%). Pretty much guaranteed to be a Romney win. Results should be available June 3 New Zealand time, so these offer a 4-5% return over a month (which is a 60-80% annual return).
Mitt Romney to win Missouri: Sell 35 @ $0.97 $0.95
Ron Paul to win Missouri: Buy 100 @ $0.025 $0.04
US presidential election - Swing states
Arizona
This has leant Republican in the past, though has been becoming less so, and McCain only won it by 10% even though it was his home state. Recent polling has shown it's very competitive (of the last two polls, one had Romney +2 and one had Obama +2), so the Republican candidate to win seems overpriced.
Democratic candidate to win Arizona: Sell 50 at $0.27 $0.24
Republican candidate to win Arizona: Buy 50 at $0.73 $0.76
Florida
There's somewhere between 55% and 64% chance of a Republican win according to Intrade, so these are at a 11-23% discount.
Republican candidate to win Florida: Sell 20 at $0.51 $0.49
Democratic candidate to win Florida: Buy 30 at $0.49 $0.51
US presidential election - Leans/strong Democrat
New Mexico
A swing state in 2000 and 2004, but won by Obama by 15% in 2008. Polling this year has Obama up by a similar margin.
Democratic candidate to win New Mexico: Sell 30 at $0.80 $0.76
Republican candidate to win New Mexico: Buy 30 at $0.20 $0.23
Oregon
The Democratic candidate has won by 0.5%-16% in the last three elections, but this has been steadily growing (it was 16% in 2008). Polling has Obama 8-12% ahead.
Democratic candidate to win Oregon: Sell 65 at $0.80 $0.78
US presidential election - Strong Republican states
Arkansas
Romney polling 16-24% ahead, McCain won by 20% in 2008.
Democratic candidate to win Arkansas: Buy 80 at $0.10 $0.12
Republican candidate to win Arkansas: Sell 80 at $0.90 $0.87
Nebraska
The Republican candidate has won by 15-33% in the last three elections.
Democratic candidate to win Nebraska: Buy 60 at $0.07 $0.10
Republican candidate to win Nebraska: Sell 80 at $0.93 $0.90
US presidential election - Very strong Republican states
Idaho
The Republican candidate has won by 25-40% in the last three elections.
Democratic candidate to win Idaho: Buy 100 at $0.03 $0.06
Republican candidate to win Idaho: Sell 100 at $0.97 $0.934
Oklahoma
The Republican candidate has won by 22-31% in the last three elections (31% in the last two).
Democratic candidate to win Oklahoma: Buy 40 at $0.03 $0.06
Republican candidate to win Oklahoma: Sell 50 at $0.97 $0.934
Wyoming
The Republican candidate has won by 32-40% in the last three elections.
Democratic candidate to win Wyoming: Buy 250 at $0.04 $0.06
US presidential election - 'Other' candidates
Happy to sell these for any price really - I only got them through arbitrage, but there are no buy orders for me to fill.
Other to win Minnesota: Sell 40 at $0.0020 $0.0005
Other to win Wisconsin: Sell 20 at $0.0020 $0.0005
Other to win Wyoming: Sell 60 at $0.0020 $0.0005
Nebraska congressional districts
Nebraska (a very Republican state) has three congressional districts. After recent redistricting, NE-1 and NE-2 may be competitive, however NE-3 is very Republican - much more so than the state as a whole. Considering Nebraska itself will almost certainly be won by Romney, NE-3 is a fairly secure investment.
Republican candidate to win NE-3: Sell 150 at $0.96 $0.934
Democratic candidate to win NE-3: Buy 100 at $0.04 $0.06
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Wed, 03 Feb 2016 20:20:15 +1300Phorum 5.2.10/forum/read.php?17,17384,17575#msg-17575Re: Cheap US politics stocks (now even cheaper) - limited time
/forum/read.php?17,17384,17575#msg-17575
hmonkeyOffers to TradeThu, 03 May 2012 23:29:40 +1200/forum/read.php?17,17384,17469#msg-17469Re: Cheap US politics stocks (now even cheaper) - limited time
/forum/read.php?17,17384,17469#msg-17469
hmonkeyOffers to TradeTue, 01 May 2012 22:32:48 +1200/forum/read.php?17,17384,17384#msg-17384Cheap US politics stocks
/forum/read.php?17,17384,17384#msg-17384
Update: these orders are no longer available.
I'll soon be going overseas for a couple of months, and want to reduce the size of my portfolio as much as possible before then. I have the following orders for a range of US stocks at very favourable prices for whoever picks them up.
Missouri Republican primary
See this thread for details, but Romney currently has 50% of the awarded delegates and is expected to get a much greater proportion of the remaining ones (Santorum is second with 30%, followed by Paul with 17%). Pretty much guaranteed to be a Romney win. Results should be available June 3 New Zealand time, so these offer a 4-5% return over a month (which is a 60-80% annual return).
This has leant Republican in the past, though has been becoming less so, and McCain only won it by 10% even though it was his home state. Recent polling has shown it's very competitive (of the last two polls, one had Romney +2 and one had Obama +2), so the Republican candidate to win seems overpriced.
The Democratic candidate has won by 0.5%-16% in the last three elections, but this has been steadily growing (it was 16% in 2008). Polling has Obama 8-12% ahead.
Nebraska (a very Republican state) has three congressional districts. After recent redistricting, NE-1 and NE-2 may be competitive, however NE-3 is very Republican - much more so than the state as a whole. Considering Nebraska itself will almost certainly be won by Romney, NE-3 is a fairly secure investment.