iPredict’s accuracy relies upon the aggregation of information held by our traders. In the 2008 and 2011 New Zealand general elections, iPredict enjoyed a 79% and 82.4% success rate when compared to traditional political polls (you can read a blog post on our 2008 accuracy here). However, unlike traditional political polls, iPredict relies on the wisdom of its traders in order to predict outcomes. As iPredict is a public prediction market, a threat exists of potential manipulation on iPredict, which could affect our accuracy.

iPredict has in the past suspected that attempts have been made to manipulate our stocks, and we have been open about this fact. While iPredict has been aware of suspected cases of manipulation, it has been difficult to prove as someone attempting to manipulate a stock and someone with bad or partisan information are very similar.

Despite potential manipulators succeeding in creating small jumps in the price of a stock, instances of suspected manipulation have resulted in a counter reaction from other traders. One example of attempted manipulation occurred during the 2011 General Election, a blog on that can be found here. There has, to the best of our knowledge, never been a successful attempt to manipulate a stock.

The reason for these attempts failing is that a potential manipulator provides the one thing that affects the accuracy of our predictions more than any other: liquidity. It requires an investment by a potential manipulator to shift the price of a stock; this investment will create a reward for any trader who counters the manipulation attempts on the stock. By the simple act of trying to manipulate the market, they insure that there is sufficient liquidity in the stock to bring in other traders who can ruin their attempts at manipulation. The more money invested, the more traders will be drawn to the stock.

Research carried out by George Mason University found that “previous models have found that increases in noise trading [whether that is manipulation,or uninformed trading] can increase the accuracy of thin markets, by increasing the rewards to informed trading.” Opera and Hanson’s paper titled “Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy,” goes on to say “that concerns about manipulators reducing average price accuracy are misplaced.” According to Strumpf’s 2004 research of randomly placing $500 trades on the Iowa markets, the price impact from these tacit manipulations were only temporary.

The best response to attempts to manipulation iPredict actually came from our traders. With regards to potential manipulation, one trader said: “The good thing about an open prediction market is you can fix it by placing orders in the opposite direction, facilitating the transfer of wealth from our good friends pockets into your own.”

References:

Hanson, Robin, and Ryan Oprea. “Manipulators increase information market accuracy.” George Mason University (2004).

Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz. Five open questions about prediction markets. No. w12060. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

If you haven’t had a chance to keep up with local and international news, I’ve prepared a snapshot of a selection of contracts on New Zealand and overseas.

As for overseas,

Will Hillary Clinton be the Democratic Party’s Presidential nominee?
Probably, yes. The probability of Clinton winning the party’s nomination for the 2016 Presidential election is 69%.

Who will be the Republican Party’s Presidential nominee?
Who knows? The jury is well and truly out on the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2016 Presidential election. Chris Christie leads the pack with a 20% probability, followed by Rand Paul on 19%, and Jeb Bush on 18.7%.

Will Rob Ford be re-elected Toronto mayor?
No. Embattled Toronto mayor Rob Ford was favoured to retain his role for a second term, however the probability has since fallen. The probability of Ford winning a second term is now 25%.

Back home,

Will Helen Clark be appointed the next UN Secretary-General?
Not at this stage. While the current United Nations Secretary-General has three years remaining, the probability of former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark being appointed to the role is 37.8%. If appointed, Clark would be the first female Secretary-General.

Will a current New Zealand MP defect to the Internet Party?
No. Despite claims the Internet Party had secured a current New Zealand Member of Parliament to defect to their party, the probability of that happening is currently 23.2%.

Will Labour win back Christchurch Central at the next election?
Yes. Traders are predicting that Labour will win back at least three general electorates at the next election, including Christchurch Central. The probability of Labour winning Christchurch Central is 90%

For an in depth look at New Zealand politics and iPredict, our updates on the New Zealand General Election can be found here and our interactive electorate graph here.

Mitch.

If you haven’t had a chance to keep up with local and international news, I’ve prepared a snapshot of a selection of New Zealand and UK political contracts. In addition to iPredict’s weekly New Zealand election update, this post will provide an easy to consume political update in the lead up to New Zealand’s General Election, as well as the UK and EU elections.

As for overseas,

Will Scotland vote for independence?
Nope. The probability of Scotland opting for independence at this year’s referendum on September 18 is 20%.

Will the Green Party of England and Wales win at least one seat in the House of Commons at the next UK General Election?
Yes. There is a 75% probability the Greens will be successful in their bid for another term in the House of Commons.

Will there be a (UK) Labour Prime Minister after the 2015 General Election?
Yes. The probability of a Labour Prime Minister after the 2015 General Election in the United Kingdom is 61%.

Back home,

Will Judith Collins lose her Ministerial warrants before 14 August 2014?
Nope. Despite the fallout following #milkgate, there is only an 11% probability that Collins will be kicked out of Cabinet before this year’s election.

Will Len Brown depart as Mayor of Auckland before the next election?
Probably not. The probability of Len Brown, Mayor of Auckland departing before the next election continues it’s downward trend, currently trading at 30%.

Will a bill imposing Plain Packaging on cigarettes receive Royal Assent before 1 January 2015?
No. There is an 8.3% probability that a Bill on Plain Packaging will be signed by the Governor-General before the end of this year.

For an in depth look at New Zealand politics and iPredict, our updates on the New Zealand General Election can be found here and our interactive electorate graph here.

Mitch.

After an electorate whitewash at the 2011 General Election in favour of National, Labour will be looking at clawing back some of the ground it lost come September 20. iPredict traders are tipping that Labour will pick up at least three general electorate seats, all from National. The seats, Christchurch Central, Napier, and Waimakariri are all former strongholds for Labour and have been held by National for three terms or less. In Waimakariri, a small majority and a returning former-incumbent could make all the difference for Labour this election.

The Waimakariri electorate was created for the 1996 election, and has been won by Labour for all but one of the six elections since. Once held by former Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party Mike Moore, Waimakariri was won by Clayton Cosgrove from 1999 until 2011 when he lost the seat to National’s Kate Wilkinson. Wilkinson had contested the seat unsuccessfully against Cosgrove at the 2005, and 2008 elections with very close margins in 2008 before finally winning it in 2011 with a majority of 642 votes.

Cosgrove, who was elected to Parliament in 2011 off Labour’s list despite losing the electorate, has once again gained Labour’s candidacy in the Waimakariri. His counterpart, Kate Wilkinson, has announced she will not be seeking re-election this year, leaving National’s failed Christchurch East by-election candidate Matthew Doocey to take the spot. Doocey, a manager in Canterbury District Health Board’s surgical division, lost to Labour’s Poto Williams in the Christchurch East by-election late last year by 4,837 votes. During the by-election campaign, Doocey did not rule out running in Waimakariri at the General Election despite contesting the by-election.

In a contest for Waimakariri, traders are picking Cosgrove, whose popularity has been waning on the West Coast, to take the electorate over Doocey. Doocey’s selection on March 18 had little to no effect on the probability of National winning the seat. The probability of Labour winning the seat of Waimakariri at the next General Election is 73% to National’s 27%.

A full list of the Napier electorate contracts can be found here.

Mitch.

The Democrats are ahead, while the probability of the Prince of Wales to lead New Zealand increase. As news on New Zealand politics has been well covered this week, this Weekly Update blog will cover contracts on the US Presidential Election, and New Zealand’s Head of State.

US Presidential Elections 2016

With the guessing work taken out of the United States’ Presidential Election date through fixed term elections, focus turns to who will win the Presidential nomination for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. For the Republicans, embattled Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie still leads the race for their Presidential candidate nomination, however the probability is far from convincing. There is a 24.4% probability Christie will lead the Republican Party to the 2016 election to Rand Paul’s 20.9%. The probability that the Governor of Florida and the next politician in the Bush Dynasty, Jeb Bush, will win the nomination is 16.8%. Unlike the Republican nomination race, traders predict it will be an easier choice for the Democrats. Former Secretary of State and former US First Lady Hillary Clinton leads the field of Democrat candidates with a 74.4% probability she will win the Democratic Party’s Presidential nomination. Clinton’s most likely rival, Andrew Cuomo, has a probability of 13.4% to win the nomination.

As for the battle for the White House, the Democrats have extended their lead over the Republicans. The probability a Democratic Party candidate will be elected US President in 2016 is 56% to the Republican’s 45%.

New Zealand Head of State

With debate on New Zealand becoming a Republic following Prime Minister John Key’s announcement on a review of the nation’s flag, there is talk a new Monarch will soon reign over New Zealand. Traders predict the reign of Queen Elizabeth II will not extend past 2020. The probability Charles, Prince of Wales to be Head of State of New Zealand by 2020 is 86.6%. As for whether or not that will matter for New Zealanders, the probability of New Zealand holding a referendum on becoming a republic by 2020 is 62.3%. If that referendum is held, the probability of a New Zealand republic to be approved in a referendum by 2020 is trading at just 25%.

For an in depth look at New Zealand politics and iPredict, our updates on the New Zealand General Election can be found here and our interactive electorate graph here.

Mitch.

After an electorate whitewash at the 2011 General Election in favour of National, Labour will be looking at clawing back some of the ground it lost come September 20. iPredict traders are tipping that Labour will pick up at least three general electorate seats, all from National. The seats, Christchurch Central, Napier, and Waimakariri are all former strongholds for Labour and have been held by National for three terms of less. This blog will evaluate the iPredict probability Labour will take back Napier at the next election.

Before the 2005 election, Labour had held the electorate of Napier since 1954. In 2005, National’s Chris Tremain was up against Labour’s one-term incumbent Russell Fairbrother. The seat was vacated at the 2005 General Election due to the resignation of the late six term Labour Napier MP Geoffrey Braybrooke, leaving it open for Fairbrother, a successive defence lawyer. Fairbrother was up against Anne Tolley in 2002 and won with a majority of 4157 votes, however the tables were turned in 2005. In the following election, Fairbrother faced up against Chris Tremain, losing by 3591 votes

At the 2011 General Election, Tremain held off Labour’s Stuart Nash by 3701 votes to win a third term.Tremain has announced he will not be seeking re-election at the 2014 General Election, opening the door for Labour to stake their claim. Labour’s Nash, great-grandson of former Prime Minister Walter Nash, will face off against National’s candidate, Wayne Walford, Chief Executive of the Hawke’s Bay Chamber of Commerce. Both candidates have had their nominations confirmed in the last few weeks.

It will be up to Walford to maintain Tremain’s majority of 3701 at the election on September 20, however traders are predicting the electorate may go Labour’s way. The probability of Labour winning the electorate of Napier at the 2014 election is 67% to National’s 35%. These contracts have been pretty fluid in recent days, but Nash’s confirmation had positive effect on Labour’s Napier contract.

A full list of the Napier electorate contracts can be found here.

Mitch.

In this week’s Weekly Update, we’ll look at the state of electorate candidate selections across the country, as well as a selection of candidates in specific electorates.

According to The Progress Report’s comprehensive 2014 Candidates list, Labour and National are almost neck-and-neck with the number of general electorate candidates selected just 26 weeks out from the election. Both parties have selected 35 candidates to stand in general electorates. With 64 general electorates, Labour and National are expected to select a further 29 candidates. As for the Green Party, they have confirmed selections for 20 candidates in general electorates.  In terms of the seven Māori electorate seats, Labour has selected candidates in four with one selection each by the Green Party and Māori Party. National are yet to name any candidates for the seven Māori electorates. Parties have a long way to go yet in selecting candidates to represent them at this year’s election, but the wheels are in motion.

Eyes will be on the marginal electorates of  Waimakariri, Napier, and Christchurch Central this election, as these former Labour electorates were marginally lost to Labour at the last election. In the electorate of Waimakariri, National have selected one-time failed by-election candidate Matthew Doocey to take over from Kate Wilkinson. Doocey will be up against former Waimakariri MP Clayton Cosgrove, whose popularity has waned in the West Coast electorate. As for Napier, former Labour list  MP Stuart Nash will be taking on new National candidate and CEO of the Hawke’s Bay Chamber of Commerce Wayne Walford. National’s Napier spot is being vacated by Chris Tremain, three term MP for National in Napier. The battle for the former Labour stronghold of Christchurch Central, between National’s Nicky Wagner and Labour’s Tony Milne, was the subject of this week’s electorate blog, which can be viewed here.

For a more in depth look at New Zealand politics and iPredict, our updates on the New Zealand General Election can be found here and our interactive electorate graph here.

Mitch.

After an electorate whitewash at the 2011 General Election in favour of National, Labour will be looking at clawing back some of the ground it lost come September 20th. iPredict has contracts now available for all New Zealand electorates, and traders are tipping that Labour will pick up at least three general electorate seats, all from National. The seats, Christchurch Central, Napier, and Waimakariri are all former strongholds for Labour and have been held by National for three terms or less. In Christchurch Central, Labour are staging a fightback, which has seen the probability of a Labour-win sky-rocket.

Before the 2011 election, the Christchurch Central electorate had only ever been held by Labour Party MPs since it was created for the 1946 election. In 2011, National’s Nicky Wagner was up against one-term Labour incumbent Brendan Burns. Before Burns, the Christchurch Central electorate was held by Labour’s current General Secretary Tim Barnett for four terms. Other notable Labour MPs who held the seat including former Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer and current Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel. The 2011 General Election saw Burns’ majority of 935 votes  from 2008 disappear, and Wagner won the seat by 47 votes.

Wagner, who contested the electorate in 2002, 2005, and 2008, has recently described the electorate as “almost unwinnable” following proposed changes to the electorate boundaries were released by the Electoral Commission. Despite admitting she does not “want to be a loser,” Wagner has confirmed she will again contest the electorate. Last weekend, Labour confirmed its candidate to stand in Christchurch Central would be Tony Milne, the 32 year old Manager of Public Health for the Problem Gambling Foundation. Milne has run as a Labour candidate twice before, however was unsuccessful in both attempts.

It seems continued questioning about the Government’s handling of the earthquake rebuild have hurt her chances of retaining her razor-thin majority. iPredict traders are backing Milne, predicting a victory for Labour in the marginal electorate of Christchurch Central. The probability of Labour to win Christchurch Central at the next General Election is 95% to National’s 5%.

A full list of the Christchurch Central electorate contracts can be found here.

Mitch.

The news of troubles in New Zealand politics have been well covered this week with Judith Collins in China, and Shane Jones being forced to eat his words over international students, comments about the Greens, and Russel Norman. This blog will cover off some of the less reported stories and interesting movements in contracts this week, including New Zealand’s bid for the UN Security Council, Paid Parental Leave, and Australian state elections.

UN Security Council

New Zealand is continuing with its bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for 2014/15. The vote on this will be held at the United Nations in October, where traders are now expecting New Zealand to be unsuccessful in gaining the seat. The probability of New Zealand being successful in its bid for a non-permanent seat is 35%, down from 53% when we blogged about this on February 28. If New Zealand were to gain the seat, it would be the first time in 21 years New Zealand has served on the United Nations Security Council.

Paid Parental Leave

The Government and Opposition continue to be at odds over Paid Parental Leave, with the Social Services Select Committee unable to agree on whether or not Sue Moroney’s Bill should pass Parliament. Moroney’s Bill sets to extend Paid Parental Leave to 26 weeks and appears to have numbers to pass, however the Government has threatened to use their financial veto to put an end to the Bill. The probability of the Bill passing is currently sitting just below 15%. It is worth reading the Judging Criteria for this contract as it says the Bill may be amended and the contract will pay out $1 as long as the current Paid Parental Leave entitlement increases by four weeks.

Australian State Elections

Australians in the states of Tasmanian and South Australia will head to the polls tomorrow to vote to elect two Liberal Premiers, according to trading on iPredict. The probability of a Liberal Premier after the 2014 Tasmanian Election is 92%, to Labor’s 8%. While Labor may still be able to do a deal with the Greens, traders are convinced the Liberal Party will be successful in their bid to end Labor’s 16 years in power in Tasmania.

The field of play is looking rather similar in South Australia as well. The probability of a Labor Premier after the 2014 South Australian State Election is 8% to the Liberal Party’s 92%. Labor have held power in South Australia for 12 years.

For a more in depth look at New Zealand politics and iPredict, our updates on the New Zealand General Election can be found here and our interactive electorate graph here.

Mitch.

As politicians on both sides of the House got in trouble this week, John Key for derping, Judith Collins for enjoying a cheeky glass of milk in China, and Cunliffe for filtering money for his leadership campaign through a trust, trading continued on iPredict contracts on the election date. In this weekly update, I’ll recap what has happened this week in regard to the election date, as well as check in on contracts for the 2016 US Presidential Election, Paid Parental Leave, and Australian politics.

US Presidential Election

With talk of the next General Election in New Zealand continuing, discussion has already begun on who will be successful in the 2016 US Presidential Elections. The answer seems clear-cut as to who will lead the Democrats into the election, but questions remain in terms of the Republican Presidential nomination. Hillary Clinton is favoured by traders to be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 poll, with a probability of 72%, with her nearest rival, Andrew Cuomo, on 13%. As for the Republicans, there is no clear frontrunner in the race for the Republican Party’s nomination. Rand Paul and Chris Christie are currently at the front of the pack, with a 20% probability each, with their closest opponent, Scott Walker, on 15%.

In terms of who will claim the White House following the election, traders are picking the Democrats to have a slight advantage over the Republicans. The probability of a Republican Party candidate being elected US President in 2016 is 44%, to the Democrats’ 56%. While the poll is still over two years away, it will be interesting to keep an eye on how the Presidential contracts fluctuate as the battle for party nominations gets underway.

Paid Parental Leave

Support for Labour MP Sue Moroney’s Parental Leave and Employment Protection (Six Month Paid Leave) Amendment Bill receiving Royal Assent by 2015 continues to trade weakly. The contract was launched in response to threats by the Government to exercise their financial veto in regards to the Bill, and this threat has continued to keep trading at a minimum. The current probability of Moroney’s bill passing is 20%.

Australian Politics

With just eight days until the Tasmanian and South Australian state elections across the Tasman, politicians there are scrambling for last minute votes. In the battle between Labor and the Liberals in Tasmanian, Will Hodgman’s Liberals are trading miles ahead of Labor. The probability of a Liberal Premier after the 2014 Tasmanian State Election is 93%, to Labor’s 7%. The Tasmanian Greens have mounted an attack campaign against other the two other major parties, which isn’t boosting the likelihood of a Greens Premier. The probability of a Green Premier after the 2014 Tasmanian State Election is 2%. In South Australia, traders are predicting another win for the Liberals. The probability of a Liberal Premier after the 2014 South Australian State Election is 92% to Labor’s 8%.

That’s all for this week. Our next blog will focus on the electorate seats the New Zealand Labour Party look likely to win back at the next General Election.

For a more in depth look at New Zealand politics and iPredict, our updates on the New Zealand General Election can be found here and our interactive electorate graph here.

Mitch.