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Contract Details

New Zealand Government to achieve Budget operating balance ABOVE 1.0% of GDP in 2017/18 (surplus)

New Zealand Government to achieve Budget operating balance ABOVE 1.0% of GDP in 2017/18 (surplus)

NZGOVT.OPBAL1718.10
Contract Info 
  • Symbol: NZGOVT.OPBAL1718.10
  • Last Trade Price: $0.7503
  • Last Trade Time:
    26 Oct 15 1:10pm
  • Today’s Volume: 0
  • Average Daily Volume: 0.0
  • Today’s Change:
    NC (0.00%) 
  • Start Date: 9 Jul 14
  • Close Date: 1 Jan 19
  • Status: Active

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Long Description

This contract pays $1 if the New Zealand Government's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2018, expected to be published in December 2018,
reports that the total Crown operating balance before gains and losses in the 2017/18 financial year was ABOVE 1.0% of GDP (ie a surplus of MORE THAN 1.0% of GDP); otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to forecast whether or not the New Zealand Government will achieve a operating balance ABOVE 1.0% of GDP in 2017/18.

That is, for example, the contract would pay $1 if the operating balance was 1.1% or 1.6% of GDP, and $0 if it was 0.9% or 1.0% of GDP.

It is intended that the contract will be closed based on information to be published in the New Zealand Government's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update
2018, expected to be published in December of that year.

For comparison purposes, the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2010 can be found at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/hyefu2010/hyefu10.pdf and, in table 1.1, shows that the total Crown operating balance before gains and losses in the 2009/10 financial year was -3.3%.

If a Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update or Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update is not published in the second half of the 2018 calender year, iPredict will make inquiries of Treasury to establish an alternative source document on which to close this contract.

iPredict's judgment is final.

All dates and times are NZT.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.