iPredict

NZ First to be in Parliament after next election but not hold balance of power

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if the NZ First Party is represented in Parliament after the next General Election but does not hold the balance of power; otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

Next General Election refers to the first General Election after the launch of this contract.

"Balance of power" means a situation in which neither of the two main political groupings can be guaranteed of the support of a majority of Parliament on confidence and supply without the support of NZ First Party.

The "two main political groupings" are:
1. National, Act, Conservative, UnitedFuture and any new parties which declare prior to the election that they would only work with National
2. Labour, Green, Mana and any new parties which declare prior to the election that they would only work with Labour

For the purposes of deciding whether or not NZ First has the balance of power, if one or both of the two main political groupings could achieve the support of a majority of Parliament on confidence and supply with the support of the Maori Party, then NZ First will be defined as NOT having the balance of power.

If both the two main political groupings would need the support of BOTH NZ First and another party, NZ First would still be said to hold the balance of power. For example, if the two groupings would need the support of BOTH the NZ First and Maori parties to have majority support on confidence and supply, then NZ First would still be said to hold the balance of power.

The contract is likely to close on election night but will stay open if there is doubt about the result.

iPredict's judgment on all matters is final.

All dates and times are NZT.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.