iPredict

Annual US Nominal GDP growth at Q4 (scaled payout)

Long Description

This contract will pay out $0.25c for each 1% above an annual nominal GDP growth of 2%.

For example, if nominal GDP rose from $18.00 trillion to $18.36 trillion, then the growth rate would be 2.0%, which means this contract would close at $0. However, if Nominal GDP rose 3.0%, this contract would close at $0.25c. If NGDP rose greater than or equal to 6.5%, the contract would close at $1.

*Edit* Payout examples:
2.0% = $0.00
2.5% = $0.125
3.0% = $0.25
3.5% = $0.375
4.0% = $0.50
4.5% = $0.625
5.0% = $0.75
5.5% = $0.875
6.0% = $1.00

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to forecast the likelihood that the annual US nominal GDP growth is within the interval specified. Data for this contract will be taken from the BEA's report, scheduled to be released in late January 2016, for the annual nominal growth in GDP between Q4 2014, and Q4 2015.

This contract will close following the announcement by the BEA of the 2015 fourth quarter GDP.

This contract will be determined solely on the basis of the preliminary nominal GDP announcement in late January 2016, NOT the later revisions.

This contract will be judged based on the change in nominal GDP (not real.) The nominal GDP data is currently reported in the BEA's table 1.1.5., and is seasonally adjusted.

Image sourced from U.S. Department of Commerce.

iPredict's judgment is final.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.