iPredict

NZ Minister to depart in 2014

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if a New Zealand Minister permanently loses their position as a Minister in 2014. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to forecast the probability that a Minister in the New Zealand government will lose their position as a Minister in 2014. This includes Ministers in the current Government at the launch of this contract, and Ministers appointed in the new Government formed following the 2014 General Election.

For the purposes of this contract, a Minister is defined to include Cabinet Minister, Minister Outside Cabinet, Support Party Minister, and Minister Outside Government.

Departure must be permanent and includes resignation, sacking, or ill-health following the launch of this contract. 'Permanent' means a departure where there are no plans to have that person return as Minister. Indefinite leave, due to ill health for example, will be considered permanent if either a) it is announced as being permanent, or b) leave lasts more than six months and after six months it remains unclear whether the Minister will return. Should event b) occur, this contract may remain open past its scheduled close date and departure will be considered to have taken place at the start of the affected Minister's leave.

This contract will not pay $1 if a Minister at the launch of this contract is not returned as a Minister following the 2014 New Zealand General Election. A Minister in the current Government at the launch of this contract must depart before Parliament is dissolved for the General Election for this contract to close at $1.

Following the General Election, any of the Ministers appointed by the new Government departing will be sufficient for this contract to close at $1.

This contract will not close due to a Minister being suspended or stood down temporarily.

This contract will close based on the timing of the announcement of a departure, not its effect. Announcement must be made by a person with suitable authority. This contract is unaffected by whether a replacement is appointed, except where that appointment signals the former Minister's departure is permanent.

Absent a definitive announcement, permanent removal of a Minister's Warrant by notification to the Governor General will be considered definitive.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.