iPredict

Manned mission to Mars launched by end 2021

Long Description

This contract will close at $1 if any party announces a successful launch of a manned mission to Mars, flyby or landing, before 12:01am on January 1st 2022 New Zealand time. Otherwise the contract will close at $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to forecast the likelihood that any party will announce a successful launch of a manned mission to Mars, flyby or landing, by the end of 2021.

Closure will be based off official statements from the party that is launching the vessel confirming the successful launch of the manned mission to Mars, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources (CNN, Bloomberg, BBC etc).

A successful launch is defined as the manned vessel being launched off the Earth's surface and being outside of the atmosphere of Earth on the intended trajectory at the time of 24 hours after the vessel left the ground. This contract will not close at $1 if the vessel does not leave the ground, has to be diverted off course once up in the air to land without completing its intended mission or malfunctions in a way that it can no longer complete its intended mission.

The launched vessel must be manned (have at least one living human being on board).

"Party" is defined as any group, country, company, alliance of people who are collaborating on this mission to Mars.

Mission must be aiming to travel to within 500km of Mars, whether it is a flyby mission or landing attempt.

iPredict reserves the right to keep this contract open as long as it deems appropriate. iPredict's judgment is final.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.