iPredict

Grant Robertson to be next Labour Party leader

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if Grant Robertson is announced as the next leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood the person named in this contract is the next Leader of the NZ Labour Party.

This contract will immediately close when a definitive announcement of an appointment of the next Leader of the Labour Party is announced by a person holding suitable authority.

This contract will immediately close at $0 if this person definitively announces their retirement from Parliament or it is certain that this person will be unable to be Leader for any reason.

If the Labour Party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.

In the event the Labour Party formally splits, then this contract will follow the post-split party named "Labour Party" or "Labour". If both or neither parties are so-named, then this contract will follow the party which contains the current (or most recent) leader of the pre-split Labour Party. In the event neither party satisfies these conditions, this contract will close at $0.

If the Labour Party is disbanded then this contract will close at $0.

If the Labour Party formally merges with another party then this contract will follow the merged entity.

In the event N co-leaders are simultaneously appointed, and this candidate is among them, then this contract will close at $1/N.

In the event more than one Leader is simultaneously appointed to serve sequentially (one after the other) then this contract will pay out based on the first person to lead.

This contract pay out based on a permanent appointment to Leader and is not affected by interim or temporary appointments.

This contract is not affected by legal challenge, except where an appointment is announced as being conditional on the outcome of a legal challenge.

If an announcement is conditional, then those conditions must be met before this contract can close.

This contract will remain open until the next Leader of the Labour Party is announced. The closing date on this contract is included only due to this site's code requirements and should be disregarded.

For the purposes of this contract, "next" refers to a person different to the Labour Party leader at the launch of this contract i.e. this contract is not affected by the reappointment of David Cunliffe to Leader.

Image sourced from Wiki Commons.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.