iPredict

Kim Jong-un to cease being Leader of North Korea before 2019

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2019, it is widely recognised internationally that Kim Jong-un has ceased being Leader of North Korea ; otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

In trading this contract, traders acknowledge the difficulties of assessing political developments in North Korea and agree that iPredict's judgment on all matters associated with the contract, exercised in good faith, shall be final.

"Leader of North Korea" means a person who is (a) alive and (b) widely recognised internationally as meeting the definition of "Leader of North Korea". It does not refer to any formal position such as Head of State, Head of Government or Head of Parliament (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_leader_of_North_Korea#Heads_of_state) which may be held by people other than the "Leader of North Korea." At the time of the launch of the contract, the person who met the definition of "Leader of North Korea" was, in iPredict's judgment, Kim Jong-un regardless of whether others, such as the military, had considerable influence or power over him.

In judging whether or not Kim Jong-un continues to be "Leader of North Korea" in the future, iPredict will be guided by (a) public statements made by the leaders or foreign ministers of major countries such as but not limited to the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, India, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom; (b) international news coverage, such as but not limited to Reuters, AP, CNN, BBC, Fox News and MSNBC; and (c) other sources such as but not limited to http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/322222/North-Korea, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea.

Reports of Kim Jong-un's possible but unconfirmed death; illness; and/or long periods of absense from public view shall be irrelevant to the judgment of this contract.

All dates and times are New Zealand time.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.