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Contract Details

Government to increase excise on beer, wine and spirits by 20% or more by 1 July 2011

Government to increase excise on beer, wine and spirits by 20% or more by 1 July 2011

Contract Info 
  • Symbol: ALC.EXC.20
  • Last Trade Price: $0.0000
  • Last Trade Time:
    26 Jun 11 12:00am
  • Today’s Volume: 0
  • Average Daily Volume: 0.0
  • Today’s Change:
    NC (0.00%) 
  • Start Date: 27 Apr 10
  • Close Date: 1 Jul 11
  • Status: Closed

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Long Description

This contract pays $1 if by 1 July 2011 the New Zealand Government increases the average excise duty on beer, wine and spirits by 20% or more on or before 1 July 2011, compared with excise as levied on 27 April 2010 (see calculation details below). Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to measure whether average excise duty on beer, wine and spirits in New Zealand will increase by 20% or more by 1 July 2011.

This contract pays out based on when excise will take effect.

iPredict will only consider a definitive statement of change in the alcohol excise duty as relevant. iPredict will not consider as definitive words to the effect that the government "is considering" or "is very likely to" change the excise duty.

This contract will remain open until an announcement is made that excise will increase by an amount sufficient to close this contract taking effect within the timeframe, or 1 July 2011, whichever comes first.

Calculation procedure: iPredict will close this contract by considering the excise, expressed on a per litre of alcohol basis, levied on the following four beverage categories (see excise duties here):

Beer - containing more than 2.5% vol (excise currently $25.476/litre alcohol) ("beer"),

Wine of fresh grapes - unfortified table wine (excise currently $23.16/litre alcohol) ("wine") (Wine conversion calculation from excise/litre to excise/litre alcohol here),

Spirits and spirituous beverages - containing more than 14% vol but not more than 23% vol (excise currently $46.400/litre alcohol),

Spirits and spirituous beverages - containing more than 23% vol (excise currently $46.400/litre alcohol).

iPredict will calculate average excise in a two step process. First, iPredict will calculate the average excise on spirits by taking a simple average of excise/litre alcohol on spirits categories 14%-23% and more than 23%. Second, iPredict will calculate the simple average of beer, wine and calculated average spirits excise.

iPredict calculates current average spirits excise as $46.400/litre alcohol, and current average beer ($25.476), wine ($23.16), and spirits ($46.400) excise as $31.679/litre alcohol. Future changes in excise will be calculated by reference to this value using the same calculation procedure. iPredict will calculate percentage change as (New - Current)/Current-1, where New refers to changed average excise in these four categories, and Current refers to current average excise.

New categories: in the event new beverage classification categories are added, iPredict will estimate the simple average excise on beer of 2.5% alcohol or more, table wine, and spirits with 14% alcohol content by volume or more at its sole discretion.

New units: if excise is expressed in units other than excise/litre alcohol, then iPredict will convert excise to this unit using average conversion factors at its sole discretion.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.