iPredict

Average Auckland House Price to be greater than $1,000,000 by January 2016

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if the Average Auckland House Price for January 2016 or any month prior is greater than $1,000,000.

If it is lower than or equal to $1,000,000, the contract closes at $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to forecast the likelihood of the Average Auckland House Price exceeding $1m before the end January 2016. This is of economic value as well as a social welfare topic.

If any average monthly price before the January 2016 value is published by this source as exceeding $1,000,000, this contract will close at $1.

This contract will close when the independent real estate analytics firm QV publishes its monthly regional price data for January 2016, or earlier if the contract requirements are satisfied.

At the time of launch, data is available from here. Results for this contract will be taken from 'Auckland Area' row of the main chart. For reference, the March 2015 value for the Average House price for the Auckland Area was $796,649.

Results published by the QV will be taken 'as is', without rounding. This contract is based on nominal prices, and does not account for CPI inflation or any other indexes. The figure expressed in the QV series determines how the contract closes.

Any revisions after this contract closes will not affect the closing price of this contract. This contract is unaffected by modifications to the series estimation methodology. If this series is discontinued prior to this contract's close, then this contract will close based on the last available data point.

If this series is discontinued prior to this contract's close, then iPredict will endeavour to find a substituted source, otherwise this contract will close based on the last available data point.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.