Beehive staffer to be found to have leaked Boag emailACC.LEAK.BEEHIVE
- Symbol: ACC.LEAK.BEEHIVE
- Last Trade Price: $0.0000
- Last Trade Time:
6 Nov 12 12:00am
- Today’s Volume: 0
- Average Daily Volume: 0.0
- Today’s Change:
- Start Date: 28 Mar 12
- Close Date: 25 Dec 12
- Status: Closed
This contract pays $1 if, before 25 December 2012, a formal inquiry or investigation reports that a Beehive staffer (see definition below) leaked Michelle Boag's email on ACC matters that was reported in the Herald on Sunday on 18 March 2012; otherwise it pays $0.
IN TRADING THIS CONTRACT, TRADERS ACKNOWLEDGE A DEGREE OF SUBJECTIVITY INVOLVED IN THE JUDGING CRITERIA AND ACCEPT THAT IPREDICT's JUDGMENT ON ALL MATTERS WILL BE FINAL.
"Beehive staffers" include all employees/contractors of Ministerial Services; secondees to Ministers' Offices from departments, including ACC; Minister's electorate staff (even if not based in the Beehive) and employees of the Department of Prime Minister & Cabinet working in the Beehive.
The contract refers SOLELY to the email reported in the Herald on Sunday on 18 March 2012, in a story by David Fisher entitled "National's Boag was in ACC meeting" and posted on www.nzherald.co.nz at http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10792840.
A "formal inquiry or investigation" includes, but is not limited to, the inquiry by the Privacy Commissioner reported at http://privacy.org.nz/acc-inquiry-terms-of-reference-announced-media-release; and/or an investigation by one or more of the New Zealand Police, the Prime Minister or his Chief of Staff, the Department of Prime Minister & Cabinet, the State Services Commission, Ministerial Services or another government agency.
The degree of formality required to satisfy the contract is a matter of iPredict's judgment - an inquiry of the sort by the Prime Minister that led to the resignation of Nick Smith as ACC Minister would be sufficient to satisfy the formality criteria.
The finding that the subject of this contract leaked the email must be in a written report that is distributed to the media. A prime ministerial media statement emailed to media is sufficient to satisfy the written report test.
The distribution of the written report is sufficient for the contract to immediately close at $1. It does not matter if the subject of this contract continues to deny having leaked the email or if the finding in the written report is later found to be incorrect.
For the purposes of the contract, it is not necessary for the investigation or inquiry to report that the subject of this contract to have directly given the email to the Herald on Sunday. It is enough that the subject of this contract gave the email to another person and knew, or should reasonably have been expected to know, that that person was likely to give it to a media outlet. A media outlet includes a blog.
This means that more than one iPredict contract on this matter may close at $1 and this contract is therefore not bundled.
If there are no developments that satisfy the conditions of this contract before 25 December 2012, it shall close at $0.
In launching this contract, iPredict is in no way suggesting or implying that the subject of the contract was in any way involved in leaking the email.
All dates and times are New Zealand Time.
This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.