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iPredict's Forecasting Performance

iPredict launched in September 2008. Since then, over 280 contracts have closed. How well did iPredict forecast these outcomes? This page summarises the prediction performance of closed contracts on the iPredict live site since launch.

Note: Data for the forecasting performance analysis on this page is for the period 12 June 2008 through 27 July 2009. Price data at the end of the page is for the period 12 June 2008 through 30 Setember 2009. The period 12 June 2008-8 September 2008 was a pre-launch trial period using a small group of testers.

Price as a Predictor

Is a price on iPredict a predictor of future events?

Figure 1 shows that price on iPredict is an excellent predictor of the likelihood or expected outcome of future events. This chart is produced by collecting up all observations of trades between twenty "buckets" of prices each 5 cents wide, then comparing this to the average ultimate closing price for those contracts (= frequency of occurrence). Figure 1 incorporates around 300,000 observations.

Figure 1: Price vs Outcome - iPredict Forecasting Accuracy

Figure 1 shows a strong relationship between price and a contract's closing price i.e. the event outcome. The strong relationship between price and outcome means price on iPredict can be interpreted as the likelihood or expected outcome of that event, given the available information at the time. Figure 1 follows an analysis originally done by Google for their prediction market in January 2009.

Performance of Individual Contracts

Binary Contracts

On average, do binary contracts correctly pick the contract that will be judged true, as determined by a price above $0.50, and contracts which will be judged false, as determined by a price below $0.50?

To test this, for each contract a daily price was taken at a fixed time every 24 hours between its opening and closing dates, for a total of 6,185 observations across 177 binary contracts. Of these, 5,419 (88%) were on the correct side of $0.5000. That is, the proportion of contracts that would go on to be judged true that were above $0.5000 plus the proportion of contracts below $0.5000 that would go on to be judged false represented 88% of all observations.

Our interpretation of this is that a naive level of confidence in a contract, that is, the level of confidence one might have without any additional information about the specific contract, is that about 7 times in 8 a contract price above (below) $0.5000 correctly indicates a contract will be judged true (false).

Indexed Contracts

The closing price of indexed contracts is tied to an observable, external variable - for example, an inflation forecast can be derived from the trading price of an indexed contract that pays $0.01 for each 0.1% of inflation reported for any time period. A problem for indexed contracts is that they attract so little trading: on average around 1/8th the trading of a binary contract. So do they forecast well?

Figure 2 records the performance of indexed contract prices for 26 indexed contracts over their life times. All contracts close at day 0, and variation along the horizontal axis varies time until contract's close. The greater the number of days before the indexed contract's contract close, the fewer the number of indexed contracts that are open (shown by the upwards-sloping red line), giving us fewer observations. Figure 4 records a reduction in absolute error as the closing dates for the indexed contracts approach.

Figure 2: Indexed Contract: Absolute Price Performance Against Closing Price

Figure 3 below displays error in nominal (not absolute) terms and shows that indexed contracts have a persistent upwards price bias that is generally close to, and 100 days out from contract's close actually is, significantly different to 0 at the 95% level. Liquidity constraints may explain the bias.

Figure 3: Nominal Average Error with 95% Confidence Intervals

The average closing price for indexed contracts is $0.4043, meaning it is relatively costly in liquidity to remove an upwards bias (shorting ties up $(1-P) in cash per contract, where P is current price; the closer price gets to $0 and the greater the liquidity cost for any given expected return).

Bundles Performance

How reliable are predictions from stock prices within iPredict bundles?

Across Bundles, Day Before Close

Bundles are collections of mutually exclusive contracts. For example, iPredict's first bundle was for the 2008 New Zealand election winner, the bundle comprised PM.NATIONAL (paid $1 if National led the post-election government), PM.LABOUR (Labour-led) and PM.OTHER (neither led). Table 1 shows collections of bundles grouped by category. Of the 32 bundles, 28 bundles correctly picked the outcome. Of the four missed, two are for Reserve Bank of Australia cash rates, one is for RBNZ Official Cash Rate, and one is for an election-related contract (asking how many seats would National lose in the 2008 election official results).

Table 1: Bundle Accuracy: Percentage Correct Contract In Bundle Is Highest-Priced Day Before Deciding Event

Number of bundles Favourite Contract Wins Favourite contract does not win
New Zealand and US election winners 2 2 0
New Zealand election electorate seat winners 5 5 0
National/Maori coalition arrangement 1 1 0
Labour leader and deputy leader 2 2 0
National seat loss in official election results 1 0 1
Mt Albert winner and second place getter 2 2 0
Richard Worth Replacement 1 1 0
OCR bundles 6 5 1
RBA bundles 6 4 2
Petrol bundles 5 5 0
Greens leadership 1 1 0
Total 32 28 4

 

For Bundles, Any Time

Another approach to measuring accuracy is to poll contract bundles once per day each for their lifetime and to measure the proportion of polling which correctly selects the contract within each bundle that will go on to be judged true. This measure yields a total of 939 observations across the 32 bundles were recorded. Of these, 694 (73.9%) had correctly selected the contract that would go on to be closed as the highest priced contract in the bundle (generally, not always, meaning a closing price of $1).

Data to this point on the page is to 27 July 2009.

Source Data

Data in the following table is to 30 September 2009. Complete data set is available for download here.

Symbol Short Description Launch Close Contract Type Closing Price Day Before Close 2 days before close 3 days before close 7 days before close 14 days before close 30 days before close 60 days before close 90 days before close
Politics                          
PM.LABOUR There will be a Labour Prime Minister after the 2008 election 12/6/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0038 0.0027 0.2142 0.2086 0.3100 0.2892 0.2624 0.3543
PM.NATIONAL There will be a National Prime Minister after the 2008 election 12/6/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9795 0.9666 0.7802 0.7920 0.6958 0.7041 0.7310 0.7802
PM.OTHER The Prime Minister after the 2008 election will not be from either Labour or National 12/6/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0012 0.0015 0.0014 0.0020 0.0025 0.0691
VOTE.LABOUR What share of the party vote will Labour win at the 2008 election? (stock pays 1c/1% vote) 12/6/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.3399 0.3318 0.3350 0.3350 0.3318 0.3245 0.3854 0.3854 0.3700
VOTE.NATIONAL What share of the party vote will National win at the 2008 election? (stock pays 1c/1% vote) 12/6/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.4493 0.4550 0.4550 0.4584 0.4585 0.4667 0.4667 0.4751 0.4970
MP.PETERS Winston Peters to be re-elected to Parliament 12/6/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0323 0.0249 0.1727 0.1680 0.3300 0.4500 0.3774 0.5498
VOTE.GREEN What share of the party vote will the Green Party win at the 2008 election? (stock pays 10c/1% vote) 18/7/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.6720 0.6750 0.6682 0.6682 0.6682 0.6682 0.7744 0.7500 0.8411
VOTE.NZFIRST What share of the party vote will NZ First party win at the 2008 election? (stock pays 10c/1% vote) 18/7/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.4070 0.4013 0.4174 0.4174 0.4093 0.4093 0.3775 0.3775  
VOTE.ACT What share of the party vote will the ACT party win at the 2008 election? (stock pays 10c/1% vote) 18/7/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.3650 0.3543 0.3697 0.3697 0.3699 0.3543 0.3318 0.3620 0.2560
VOTE.MAORI What share of the party vote will the Maori Party win at the 2008 election? (stock pays 10c/1% vote) 18/7/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.2390 0.2390 0.2255 0.2255 0.2270 0.2560 0.4093 0.3543 0.2959
PETERS.RESIGN Winston Peters to resign or be sacked as Minister of Foreign Affairs 4/8/08 8/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0365 0.0110 0.0491 0.0592 0.0998 0.1124 0.7503 0.5000
ANNOUNCE.SEPT12 SINGLE DAY STOCK: Election date to be announced September 12 11/9/08 12/9/08 Binary 1.0000                
PETERS.SEPT17 SINGLE DAY STOCK: Peters to resign or be sacked on 17 September 16/9/08 18/9/08 Binary 0.0000 0.4833              
MAJORITY.NAT National Party to win an absolute majority of Parliamentary seats 17/9/08 24/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0078 0.0104 0.0104 0.0154 0.0219 0.1961 0.3333  
SEATS.MAORI How many electorates will the Maori Party win? 17/9/08 24/11/08 Indexed 0.5000 0.5095 0.5100 0.5100 0.5001 0.5100 0.5987 0.5793  
BENSON.POPE David Benson-Pope to stand as a non-Labour candidate in the 2008 election 22/9/08 13/10/08 Binary 0.0000 0.4174 0.3854 0.2100 0.6390 0.7802      
WC.ROBERTSON Grant Robertson to win Wellington Central 1/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9716 0.9734 0.9116 0.8022 0.7914 0.6750    
WC.FRANKS Stephen Franks to win Wellington Central 1/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0017 0.0018 0.0884 0.1712 0.1874 0.2689    
WC.OTHER Neither Grant Robertson or Stephen Franks to win Wellington Central 1/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0010 0.0093 0.0367 0.0168 0.0418    
EPSOM.HIDE Rodney Hide to win Epsom 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9837 0.9820 0.9879 0.9478 0.9089      
EPSOM.WORTH Richard Worth to win Epsom 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0030 0.0027 0.0110 0.0431 0.0759      
EPSOM.OTHER Neither Rodney Hide or Richard Worth to win Epsom 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0037      
MANGERE.FIELD Taito Phillip Field to win Mangere 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0018 0.0025 0.0500 0.0999 0.1680      
MANGERE.SIO Su'a William Sio to win Mangere 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9781 0.9802 0.9478 0.8909 0.8200      
MANGERE.OTHER Neither Taito Phillip Field or Su'a William Sio to win Mangere 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0045 0.0074 0.0090      
TAURANGA.BRIDGES Simon Bridges to win Tauranga 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9734 0.9759 0.9608 0.9350 0.8455      
TAURANGA.PETERS Winston Peters to win Tauranga 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0067 0.0055 0.0474 0.0431 0.1679      
TAURANGA.OTHER Neither Winston Peters or Simon Bridges to win Tauranga 22/10/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0009 0.0027      
MAORI.NAT.SUPP Maori Party to SUPPPORT a National-led government on Confidence and Supply 31/10/08 17/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9656 0.9780 0.9751 0.5167 0.1978      
MAORI.NAT.ABST Maori Party to ABSTAIN on Confidence and Supply for a National-led government 31/10/08 17/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0303 0.0158 0.0219 0.1419 0.3500      
MAORI.NAT.NOAG Maori Party to have NO AGREEMENT on Confidence and Supply with a National-led government 31/10/08 17/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0038 0.0055 0.0067 0.3392 0.2198      
MAORI.NAT.OTHER Government to not be National-led 31/10/08 17/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.2315      
RIMUTAKA.MARK Ron Mark to win Rimutaka 6/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0055 0.0100 0.0736          
RIMUTAKA.OTHER Ron Mark to not win Rimutaka 6/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9842 0.9781 0.9264          
LAB.LEAD.CLARK Helen Clark to be Labour Party leader on 31 December 2008 8/11/08 3/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0018 0.0028 0.0018 0.0012    
LAB.LEAD.GOFF Phil Goff to be Labour Party leader on 31 December 2008 8/11/08 3/1/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9968 0.9974 0.9937 0.9907 0.9766 0.9825    
LAB.LEAD.CUNLIFF David Cunliffe to be Labour Party leader on 31 December 2008 8/11/08 3/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0023 0.0026 0.0045 0.0067 0.0107 0.0130    
LAB.LEAD.MALLARD Trevor Mallard to be Labour Party leader on 31 December 2008 8/11/08 3/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0019 0.0019 0.0019 0.0019 0.0019 0.0001    
LAB.LEAD.OTHER Labour leader not to be Clark, Goff, Cunliffe or Mallard on 31 December 2008 8/11/08 3/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010    
LAB.DL.STREET Maryan Street to replace Michael Cullen as Labour's deputy leader 9/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0538 0.2435            
LAB.DL.JONES Shane Jones to replace Michael Cullen as Labour's deputy leader 9/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0303 0.1978            
LAB.DL.KING Annette King to replace Michael Cullen as Labour's deputy leader 9/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.5826 0.1978            
LAB.DL.CUNLIFFE David Cunliffe to replace Michael Cullen as Labour's deputy leader 9/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.2959 0.2435            
LAB.DL.GOFF Phil Goff to replace Michael Cullen as Labour's deputy leader 9/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0180 0.1339            
LAB.DL.OTHER Cullen not to be replaced by Street, Jones, King, Cunliffe, or Goff before 1 February 2009 9/11/08 11/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0445 0.1419            
OFFICIAL.NAT.NC National to lose no seats (or gain seats) when official results are declared 11/11/08 24/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0011 0.7440 0.7440 0.6755        
OFFICIAL.NAT.L1 National to lose one seat when official results are declared 11/11/08 24/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9955 0.1874 0.2198 0.2865        
OFFICIAL.NAT.L2 National to lose two seats when official results are declared 11/11/08 24/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0011 0.0192 0.0392 0.0266        
OFFICIAL.NAT.OTH National to lose more than two seats when official results are declared 13/11/08 24/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0010 0.0011 0.0010        
MP.CLARK Helen Clark to leave Parliament in 2009 9/1/09 4/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9952 0.9952 0.9900 0.9913 0.8808 0.8736 0.7915  
MP.CULLEN Michael Cullen to leave Parliament in 2009 9/1/09 7/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9582 0.9633 0.9633 0.9656 0.9656 0.9734 0.5987  
GREENS.BRADFORD Sue Bradford to replace Jeanette Fitzsimons as Greens Co-Leader 24/2/09 30/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0650 0.0782 0.0650 0.0650 0.0884 0.0850 0.0939 0.1419
GREENS.TUREI Metiria Turei to replace Jeanette Fitzsimons as Greens Co-Leader 24/2/09 30/5/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9218 0.9168 0.9116 0.9218 0.9061 0.8581 0.8736 0.8876
UNDP.CLARK Helen Clark to be the next administrator of the United Nations Development Programme 24/2/09 1/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9918 0.9907 0.9918 0.8661 0.7041 0.6250    
GREENS.OTHER Neither Turei or Bradford to replace Jeanette Fitzsimons as Greens Co-Leader 3/3/09 30/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0016 0.0034 0.0034 0.0445 0.0303  
MTA.LEE.NAT National Party's Mt Albert vote share GIVEN Melissa Lee is National's candidate 15/4/09 24/6/09 Indexed 0.1696 0.1775 0.1775 0.1589 0.1680 0.2689 0.3100 0.3995  
MTA.LEE.LAB Labour Party's Mt Albert vote share GIVEN Melissa Lee is National's candidate 15/4/09 24/6/09 Indexed 0.6349 0.6146 0.6146 0.6146 0.6146 0.5826 0.4315 0.4174  
MTA.LEE Melissa Lee to be National's candidate for Mt Albert. 15/4/09 7/5/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9988 0.9988 0.9555 0.9716 0.9677      
MTA.TWYFORD.LAB Labour Party's Mt Albert vote share GIVEN Phil Twyford is Labour's candidate 15/4/09 21/4/09 Indexed 0.0000 0.1874 0.1874 0.2560          
MTA.TWYFORD.NAT National Party's Mt Albert vote share GIVEN Phil Twyford is Labour's candidate 15/4/09 21/4/09 Indexed 0.0000 0.1502 0.1775 0.1775          
MTA.TWYFORD Phil Twyford to be Labour's candidate for Mt Albert 15/4/09 21/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.3245 0.3392 0.3854          
MTA.WIN.LABOUR Labour to win Mt Albert by-election 7/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9918 0.9924 0.9800 0.9582 0.9608 0.9002    
MTA.WIN.NATIONAL National to win Mt Albert by-election 7/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0072 0.0072 0.0148 0.0234 0.0323 0.0939    
MTA.WIN.GREENS Greens to win Mt Albert by-election 7/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0032 0.0284 0.0030 0.0063    
MTA.WIN.OTHER Labour, National, Greens to not win Mt Albert by-election 7/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0009 0.0001    
MTA.2ND.NATIONAL National to come second in Mt Albert by-election 22/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9390 0.9462 0.9061 0.9427 0.9218      
MTA.2ND.GREENS Greens to come second in Mt Albert by-election 22/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0650 0.0538 0.0939 0.0266 0.0304      
MTA.2ND.ACT ACT to come second in Mt Albert by-election 22/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0037 0.0205      
MTA.2ND.OTHER National, Greens, ACT party to not come second 22/5/09 14/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0012 0.0148 0.0249      
MIN.RW.GUY Nathan Guy to replace Richard Worth as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.8876 0.8736 0.8808 0.5826        
MIN.RW.FOSS Craig Foss to replace Richard Worth as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0474 0.0610 0.0367 0.2086        
MIN.RW.GOODHEW Jo Goodhew to replace Richard Worth as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0418 0.0284 0.0158 0.0445        
MIN.RW.HENARE Tau Henare to replace Richard Worth as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0114 0.0016 0.0026 0.0055        
MIN.RW.BORROWS Chester Borrows to replace Richard Worth as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0045 0.0048 0.0192 0.0445        
MIN.RW.NONE Richard Worth to not be replaced as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0072 0.0050 0.0076 0.0650        
MIN.RW.WORTH Richard Worth to be returned as a Minister 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0028        
MIN.RW.OTHER Richard Worth to be replaced by no person already listed 3/6/09 15/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0205 0.0323 0.0445 0.0832        
WORTH.RESIGN Richard Worth to leave Parliament in 2009 11/6/09 12/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.7311              
FC.RANKIN Christine Rankin to lose position as Commissioner for the Families Commission before 21 August 2009 29/6/09 23/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0042 0.0087 0.0100 0.0130 0.0148 0.0392    
OCR                          
OCR.50PT4OCT Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 points before October 4. 26/9/08 5/10/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0148 0.0055 0.0474 0.2435        
                           
OCR.9OCT08 SINGLE DAY STOCK: Reserve Bank to announce emergency OCR cut on 9 October 9/10/08 10/10/08 Binary 0.0000 0.6117              
                           
OCR.50.23OCT Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 23 October 10/10/08 23/10/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0431 0.0522 0.0691 0.1419        
OCR.75.23OCT Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 75 basis points on 23 October 10/10/08 23/10/08 Binary 0.0000 0.2142 0.1680 0.1500 0.1978        
OCR.100.23OCT Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 100 basis points on 23 October 10/10/08 23/10/08 Binary 1.0000 0.6682 0.7050 0.7100 0.5987        
OCR.OTHER.23OCT Reserve Bank to not reduce OCR by 50, 75 or 100 basis points on 23 October 10/10/08 23/10/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0691 0.0832 0.0759 0.0998        
                           
OCR.OTHER.4DEC Reserve Bank to not lower the OCR by 50, 75 or 100 basis points on 4 December 9/11/08 4/12/08 Binary 1.0000 0.7802 0.7440 0.5826 0.6146 0.1978      
OCR.50.4DEC Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 4 December 9/11/08 4/12/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0082 0.0067 0.0158 0.0280 0.0344      
OCR.75.4DEC Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 75 basis points on 4 December 9/11/08 4/12/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0180 0.0249 0.0445 0.0367 0.0736      
OCR.100.4DEC Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 100 basis points on 4 December 9/11/08 4/12/08 Binary 0.0000 0.1978 0.2435 0.3697 0.2822 0.7040      
                           
OCR.100.29JAN Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 100 basis points on 29 January 2009 3/12/08 29/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.5498 0.4667 0.5000 0.4999 0.6608 0.3541    
OCR.75.29JAN Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 75 basis points on 29 January 2009 3/12/08 29/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0266 0.0400 0.0249 0.0573 0.1200 0.2200    
OCR.50.29JAN Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 29 January 2009 3/12/08 29/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0089 0.0063 0.0042 0.0167 0.0344 0.2500    
OCR.25.29JAN Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 25 basis points on 29 January 2009 3/12/08 29/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0015 0.0030 0.0013 0.0087 0.0537    
OCR.OTHER.29JAN Reserve Bank to not lower the OCR by 25, 50, 75 or 100 basis points on 29 January 2009 3/12/08 29/1/09 Binary 1.0000 0.4337 0.5000 0.4374 0.4174 0.1775 0.1200    
                           
OCR.09.SUB45 OCR to go below 4.5% in 2009 9/1/09 29/1/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9918 0.9913 0.9886 0.9886 0.9879      
OCR.09.SUB40 OCR to go below 4.0% in 2009 9/1/09 29/1/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9633 0.9697 0.9500 0.9582 0.9309      
OCR.09.SUB35 OCR to go below 3.5% in 2009 9/1/09 12/3/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9891 0.9891 0.9891 0.9879 0.9795 0.9608 0.6146  
OCR.09.SUB30 OCR to go below 3.0% in 2009 9/1/09 30/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9781 0.9795 0.9795 0.9677 0.9751 0.9427 0.9427 0.9350
                           
OCR.100.12MAR Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 100 basis points on 12 March 2009 28/1/09 12/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.2435 0.2315 0.2499 0.2000 0.4833 0.2315    
OCR.75.12MAR Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 75 basis points on 12 March 2009 28/1/09 12/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.2336 0.2190 0.2435 0.2198 0.2049 0.1775    
OCR.50.12MAR Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 12 March 2009 28/1/09 12/3/09 Binary 1.0000 0.4013 0.4013 0.3900 0.4337 0.1310 0.3854    
OCR.25.12MAR Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 25 basis points on 12 March 2009 28/1/09 12/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0573 0.0538 0.0691 0.0736 0.0300 0.0885    
OCR.OTHER.12MAR Reserve Bank to not lower the OCR by 25, 50, 75 or 100 basis points on 12 March 2009 28/1/09 12/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0474 0.0782 0.0573 0.0736 0.1330 0.0998    
                           
OCR.50.30APR Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 30 April 2009 11/3/09 30/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.6048 0.6145 0.5656 0.5987 0.4505 0.1680    
OCR.25.30APR Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 25 basis points on 30 April 2009 11/3/09 30/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.3245 0.3251 0.4000 0.3392 0.4337 0.5012    
OCR.NC.30APR Reserve Bank to not change the OCR on 30 April 2009 11/3/09 30/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0392 0.0445 0.0400 0.0418 0.0691 0.2838    
OCR.INCR.30APR Reserve Bank to increase the OCR on 30 April 2009 11/3/09 30/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0013 0.0001 0.0010 0.0010 0.0072    
OCR.OTHER.30APR Reserve Bank to lower the OCR by more than 50 basis points on 30 April 2009 11/3/09 30/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0180 0.0106 0.0125 0.0323 0.0418 0.0303    
                           
OCR.INCR.JUL09 OCR to be increased any time before 1 July 2009 3/4/09 1/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0048 0.0055 0.0055 0.0067 0.0093 0.0219 0.0234  
                           
OCR.50.11JUN Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 11 June 2009 15/4/09 11/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0284 0.0344 0.0303 0.0344 0.0219 0.0222    
OCR.25.11JUN Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 25 basis points on 11 June 2009 15/4/09 11/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.3240 0.2959 0.3000 0.2560 0.2689 0.1680    
OCR.NC.11JUN Reserve Bank to not change the OCR on 11 June 2009 15/4/09 11/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.6501 0.6755 0.6608 0.7178 0.7180 0.8022    
OCR.INCR.11JUN Reserve Bank to increase the OCR on 11 June 2009 15/4/09 11/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001    
OCR.OTHER.11JUN Reserve Bank to lower the OCR by more than 50 basis points on 11 June 2009 15/4/09 11/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0013 0.0022 0.0020    
                           
OCR.50.30JUL Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 30 July 2009 22/5/09 30/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0072 0.0048 0.0082 0.0067 0.0114 0.0192 0.0573  
OCR.25.30JUL Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 25 basis points on 30 July 2009 22/5/09 30/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0450 0.0418 0.0418 0.0344 0.0367 0.1339 0.2959  
OCR.NC.30JUL Reserve Bank to not change the OCR on 30 July 2009 22/5/09 30/7/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9462 0.9555 0.9555 0.9582 0.9526 0.8411 0.6303  
OCR.INCR.30JUL Reserve Bank to increase the OCR on 30 July 2009 22/5/09 30/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0004 0.0042 0.0100  
OCR.OTHER.30JUL Reserve Bank to lower the OCR by more than 50 basis points on 30 July 2009 22/5/09 30/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0063  
                           
OCR.50.10SEP Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 50 basis points on 10 September 2009 29/6/09 10/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0011 0.0022 0.0011 0.0042 0.0018 0.0138 0.0151  
OCR.25.10SEP Reserve Bank to lower OCR by 25 basis points on 10 September 2009 29/6/09 10/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0392 0.0318 0.0234 0.0121 0.0573 0.0782 0.1123  
OCR.NC.10SEP Reserve Bank to not change the OCR on 10 September 2009 29/6/09 10/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9608 0.9656 0.9766 0.9808 0.9309 0.9061 0.8661  
OCR.INCR.10SEP Reserve Bank to increase the OCR on 10 September 2009 29/6/09 10/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0004 0.0023 0.0059 0.0028 0.0100  
OCR.OTHER.10SEP Reserve Bank to lower the OCR by more than 50 basis points on 10 September 2009 29/6/09 10/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0009 0.0001 0.0048  
                           
RBA                          
RBA.100.3FEB Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 100 basis points on 3 February 2009 28/1/09 3/2/09 Binary 1.0000 0.7311 0.7050 0.6900          
RBA.75.3FEB Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 75 basis points on 3 February 2009 28/1/09 3/2/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0367 0.0998 0.0998          
RBA.50.3FEB Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 3 February 2009 28/1/09 3/2/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0087 0.0130 0.0249          
RBA.25.3FEB Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 3 February 2009 28/1/09 3/2/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010          
RBA.OTHER.3FEB Reserve Bank of Australia to not lower cash rate by 25, 50, 75 or 100 basis points on 3 February 200 28/1/09 3/2/09 Binary 0.0000 0.2435 0.1978 0.1874          
                           
RBA.75.3MAR Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 75 basis points on 3 March 2009 24/2/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0736 0.1339 0.1600 0.3392        
RBA.50.3MAR Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 3 March 2009 24/2/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.4337 0.4013 0.3392 0.2700        
RBA.25.3MAR Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 3 March 2009 24/2/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.2399 0.1901 0.1980 0.1124        
RBA.NC.3MAR Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 3 March 2009 24/2/09 3/3/09 Binary 1.0000 0.2560 0.2000 0.2000 0.1059        
RBA.OTHER.3MAR RBA to change cash rate but not lower by 25, 50 or 75 basis points on 3 March 2009 24/2/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0266 0.0573 0.0885 0.1339        
                           
RBA.50.7APR Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 7 April 2009 11/3/09 7/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.2086 0.1775 0.1499 0.2316 0.4013      
RBA.25.7APR Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 7 April 2009 11/3/09 7/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.2822 0.2965 0.2822 0.3245 0.2822      
RBA.NC.7APR Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 7 April 2009 11/3/09 7/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.4833 0.5333 0.5333 0.3854 0.2320      
RBA.INCR.7APR Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate on 7 April 2009 11/3/09 7/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0001 0.0030 0.0051 0.0158      
RBA.OTHER.7APR Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by more than 50 basis points on 7 April 2009 11/3/09 7/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0205 0.0234 0.0249 0.0192 0.0691      
                           
RBA.50.5MAY Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 5 May 2009 15/4/09 5/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0168 0.0395 0.0418 0.0650 0.1264      
RBA.25.5MAY Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 5 May 2009 15/4/09 5/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.1192 0.2315 0.2430 0.2689 0.3850      
RBA.NC.5MAY Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 5 May 2009 15/4/09 5/5/09 Binary 1.0000 0.8661 0.7311 0.7178 0.6755 0.4502      
RBA.INCR.5MAY Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate on 5 May 2009 15/4/09 5/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001 0.0032      
RBA.OTHER.5MAY Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by more than 50 basis points on 5 May 2009 15/4/09 5/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0025 0.0310      
                           
RBA.50.2JUN Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 2 June 2009 22/5/09 3/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0100 0.0130 0.0148 0.0392        
RBA.25.2JUN Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 2 June 2009 22/5/09 3/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0832 0.0650 0.0650 0.1192        
RBA.NC.2JUN Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 2 June 2009 22/5/09 3/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9061 0.9218 0.9168 0.8225        
RBA.INCR.2JUN Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate on 2 June 2009 22/5/09 3/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0012 0.0042        
RBA.OTHER.2JUN Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by more than 50 basis points on 2 June 2009 22/5/09 3/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0011 0.0012 0.0042        
                           
RBA.50.7JUL Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 7 July 2009 29/6/09 7/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0034        
RBA.25.7JUL Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 7 July 2009 29/6/09 7/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0392 0.0266 0.0323 0.0338        
RBA.NC.7JUL Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 7 July 2009 29/6/09 7/7/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9555 0.9716 0.9608 0.9564        
RBA.INCR.7JUL Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate on 7 July 2009 29/6/09 7/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0051 0.0070 0.0087 0.0087        
RBA.OTHER.7JUL Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by more than 50 basis points on 7 July 2009 29/6/09 7/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002        
                           
RBA.50.4AUG Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 50 basis points on 4 August 2009 23/7/09 4/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0020 0.0100        
RBA.25.4AUG Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by 25 basis points on 4 August 2009 23/7/09 4/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0076 0.0082 0.0082 0.0344        
RBA.NC.4AUG Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 4 August 2009 23/7/09 4/8/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9820 0.9870 0.9870 0.9462        
RBA.INCR.4AUG Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the cash rate on 4 August 2009 23/7/09 4/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0034        
RBA.OTHER.4AUG Reserve Bank of Australia to lower cash rate by more than 50 basis points on 4 August 2009 23/7/09 4/8/09 Binary 1.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0034        
                           
RBA.OTHER.1SEP Reserve Bank of Australia to change the cash rate on 1 September 2009 13/8/09 1/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0323 0.0303 0.0445 0.0323 0.0573      
RBA.NC.1SEP Reserve Bank of Australia to not change the cash rate on 1 September 2009 13/8/09 1/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9734 0.9633 0.9555 0.9697 0.9526      
                           
Petrol                          
91.FEB09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 132 cents on 27 February 2009 23/1/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0042 0.0200    
91.FEB09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 132 and 139.9 cents on 27 February 2009 23/1/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0032 0.0323    
91.FEB09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 140 and 148 cents on 27 February 2009 23/1/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0001 0.0001 0.0011 0.0121 0.1000    
91.FEB09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 148.1 and 156 cents on 27 February 2009 23/1/09 3/3/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0010 0.0048 0.0192 0.0323 0.1900    
91.FEB09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 156 cents on 27 February 2009 23/1/09 3/3/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9795 0.9842 0.9900 0.9585 0.9427 0.6608    
                           
91.MAR09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 154 cents on 27 March 2009 24/2/09 3/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0158 0.3000 0.0691    
91.MAR09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 154 and 161.9 cents on 27 March 2009 24/2/09 3/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9974 0.9970 0.9974 0.9677 0.5333 0.1680    
91.MAR09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 162 and 170 cents on 27 March 2009 24/2/09 3/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0055 0.1264 0.3392    
91.MAR09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 170.1 and 178 cents on 27 March 2009 24/2/09 3/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0192 0.2560    
91.MAR09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 178 cents on 27 March 2009 24/2/09 3/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.1419    
                           
91.APR09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 146 cents on 24 April 2009 3/4/09 4/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0013 0.0750    
91.APR09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 146 and 153.9 cents on 24 April 2009 3/4/09 4/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001 0.0266 0.1500    
91.APR09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 154 and 162 cents on 24 April 2009 3/4/09 4/5/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9980 0.9986 0.9985 0.9900 0.8941 0.4800    
91.APR09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 162.1 and 170 cents on 24 April 2009 3/4/09 4/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0736 0.2559    
91.APR09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 170 cents on 24 April 2009 3/4/09 4/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0093 0.0001 0.0013 0.0474    
                           
91.MAY09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 150 cents on 29 May 2009 7/5/09 5/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010      
91.MAY09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 146 and 153.9 cents on 29 May 2009 7/5/09 4/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0032 0.0100      
91.MAY09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 154 and 162 cents on 29 May 2009 7/5/09 4/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0067 0.0072 0.0030 0.0418 0.0933      
91.MAY09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 162.1 and 170 cents on 29 May 2009 7/5/09 4/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9907 0.9842 0.9832 0.9495 0.8489      
91.MAY09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 170 cents on 29 May 2009 7/5/09 4/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0022 0.0392      
                           
91.JUNE09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 150 cents on 26 June 2009 22/5/09 4/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0001 0.0067    
91.JUNE09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 150 and 157.9 cents on 26 June 2009 22/5/09 4/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0158    
91.JUNE09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 158 and 166 cents on 26 June 2009 22/5/09 4/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0025 0.0050 0.0082 0.0016 0.0284 0.1874    
91.JUNE09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 166.1 and 174 cents on 26 June 2009 22/5/09 4/7/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9952 0.9907 0.9918 0.9918 0.9608 0.6457    
91.JUNE09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 174 cents on 26 June 2009 22/5/09 4/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0010 0.0039 0.1264    
                           
91.JUL09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 158 cents for week ended 31 July 2009 26/6/09 5/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0001 0.0392 0.0049    
91.JUL09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 158 and 165.9 cents for week ended 31 July 2009 26/6/09 5/8/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9945 0.9934 0.9924 0.9677 0.9061 0.2315    
91.JUL09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 166 and 174 cents for week ended 31 July 2009 26/6/09 5/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0010 0.0010 0.0121 0.0418 0.6755    
91.JUL09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 174.1 and 182 cents for week ended 31 July 2009 26/6/09 5/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0014 0.0010 0.0884    
91.JUL09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 182 cents for week ended 31 July 2009 26/6/09 5/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0050    
                           
91.AUG09.VLOW 91 unleaded petrol to be less than 154.0 cents for week ended 28 August 2009 23/7/09 3/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0001 0.0001 0.0010 0.0093    
91.AUG09.LOW 91 unleaded petrol to be between 154.0 and 161.9 cents for week ended 28 August 2009 23/7/09 3/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0022 0.0010 0.0001 0.0010 0.0011 0.0392    
91.AUG09.MID 91 unleaded petrol to be between 162.0 and 170.0 cents for week ended 28 August 2009 23/7/09 3/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9958 0.9980 0.9955 0.9781 0.8126 0.7041    
91.AUG09.HIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be between 170.1 and 178.0 cents for week ended 28 August 2009 23/7/09 3/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0020 0.0001 0.0010 0.0130 0.1874 0.2689    
91.AUG09.VHIGH 91 unleaded petrol to be more than 178.0 cents for week ended 28 August 2009 23/7/09 3/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0192    
                           
ECON.PETROLAUG08 Will the retail price of 91 octane petrol exceed $2.00 on 1 August 2008? 12/6/08 1/8/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9495 0.9495 0.9495 0.9495 0.9462 0.9350    
                           
Polling                          
NAT.UP.30AUG09 National Party polling to increase in next Roy Morgan Poll 30 August 31/8/09 5/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.2198 0.4337 0.5000          
NAT.NC.30AUG09 National Party polling to not change in next Roy Morgan Poll 30 August 31/8/09 5/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.1059 0.1124 0.0418          
NAT.DN.30AUG09 National Party polling to fall in next Roy Morgan Poll 30 August 31/8/09 5/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.6303 0.4502 0.4502          
LAB.UP.30AUG09 Labour Party polling to increase in next Roy Morgan Poll 30 August 31/8/09 5/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.3100 0.3392 0.3854          
LAB.NC.30AUG09 Labour Party polling to not change in next Roy Morgan Poll 30 August 31/8/09 5/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0884 0.0832 0.0505          
LAB.DN.30AUG09 Labour Party polling to fall in next Roy Morgan Poll 30 August 31/8/09 5/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.6000 0.6146 0.5826          
                           
NAT.UP.13SEP National Party polling to increase in next Roy Morgan Poll 13 September 5/9/09 21/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0048 0.0076 0.1680 0.1978 0.1195      
NAT.NC.13SEP National Party polling to not change in next Roy Morgan Poll 13 September 5/9/09 21/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0059 0.0017 0.0367 0.0344 0.0400      
NAT.DN.13SEP National Party polling to fall in next Roy Morgan Poll 13 September 5/9/09 21/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9894 0.9907 0.7914 0.7565 0.8411      
LAB.UP.13SEP Labour Party polling to increase in next Roy Morgan Poll 13 September 5/9/09 21/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9900 0.9907 0.8126 0.7685 0.7178      
LAB.NC.13SEP Labour Party polling to not change in next Roy Morgan Poll 13 September 5/9/09 21/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0025 0.0028 0.0445 0.0323 0.0303      
LAB.DN.13SEP Labour Party polling to fall in next Roy Morgan Poll 13 September 5/9/09 21/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0051 0.0063 0.1589 0.1680 0.2198      
                           
                           
Legislative                          
EFA.REPEAL Electoral Finance Act to be repealed by 1 May 2009 9/11/08 19/2/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9966 0.9842 0.9843 0.9781 0.9264 0.8736 0.9002 0.7914
                           
REF.CANCEL Anti-smacking Referendum to be cancelled 29/6/09 4/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0076 0.0120 0.0368          
REF09.YES What percentage of the Total Vote in the smacking referendum will be YES? 13/8/09 22/8/09 Indexed 0.1181 0.1680 0.1680 0.1775 0.1589        
REF09.NO What percentage of the Total Vote in the smacking referendum will be NO? 13/8/09 22/8/09 Indexed 0.8760 0.7685 0.7700 0.7440 0.7560        
REF09.INFORMAL What percentage of the Total Vote in the smacking referendum will be INFORMAL? 13/8/09 22/8/09 Indexed 0.0060 0.0610 0.0650 0.0782 0.0832        
REF09.V.LT1M Total referendum vote to be less than 1,000,000 13/8/09 14/8/09 Binary 0.0000                
REF09.V.1-1.5M Total referendum vote to be between 1,000,000 and 1,500,000 13/8/09 22/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0392 0.0832 0.1059 0.0884        
REF09.V.1.5-2M Total referendum vote to be between 1,500,001 and 2,000,000 13/8/09 22/8/09 Binary 1.0000 0.8225 0.8022 0.8126 0.7311        
REF09.V.2-2.5M Total referendum vote to be between 2,000,001 and 2,500,000 13/8/09 22/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.1264 0.0736 0.0650 0.1264        
REF09.V.GT2.5M Total referendum vote to be more than 2,500,000 13/8/09 22/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0100 0.0148 0.0082 0.0610        
                           
S92A.DISCONNECT At least one internet account to be disconnected under s92A before 1 September 2009 24/2/09 1/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0093 0.0100 0.0106 0.0130 0.0284 0.0392 0.0538 0.0782
RDGS.EXTEND Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme to be extended 23/7/09 25/8/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9555 0.9495 0.9555 0.8022 0.8022 0.7311    
VSM.1STREAD Education (Freedom of Association) Amendment Bill to pass its first reading 4/9/09 24/9/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9928 0.9952 0.9955 0.9974 0.9894      
                           
International Issues                          
US.OBAMA08 Barack Obama to be elected US President in 2008 election 22/9/08 5/11/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9282 0.9072 0.9168 0.9001 0.9000 0.6984    
US.MCCAIN08 John McCain to be elected US President in 2008 election 22/9/08 5/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0773 0.0928 0.0802 0.0962 0.1151 0.3015    
US.OTHERPRES08 Neither Obama or McCain to be elected US President in 2008 22/9/08 5/11/08 Binary 0.0000 0.0001 0.0012 0.0028 0.0042 0.0059 0.0151    
                           
GM.BAILOUT President Bush to bail out General Motors 14/11/08 9/1/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9886 0.9870 0.9879 0.9894 0.9781 0.8808    
FIJI.PM Frank Bainimarama to lose position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji in 2009 9/1/09 17/4/09 Binary 1.0000 0.6000 0.5826 0.6146 0.7438 0.2822 0.2689 0.2822 0.4500
                           
Social Issues                          
DUNEDIN.STADIUM Construction on Dunedin Stadium to commence before 2010 25/9/08 13/7/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9820 0.9879 0.9894 0.9900 0.9781 0.9526 0.9309 0.8100
WGTN.BUSSTRIKE Wellington Tramways Union and GO Wellington to announce an agreement by end of Monday 29 September 25/9/08 30/9/08 Binary 0.0000 0.1502 0.3854 0.3100          
STRIKE.FERRY0809 Interislander ferries to strike during Christmas/New Year period 28/11/08 5/1/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0087 0.0192 0.0219 0.0418 0.0998 0.1215    
SWINE.NZ.10K Cumulative total of confirmed swine flu cases in New Zealand to exceed 10,000 before September 23/7/09 1/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0039 0.0072 0.0138 0.0148 0.0266 0.0832    
SWINE.NZ.25K Cumulative total of confirmed swine flu cases in New Zealand to exceed 25,000 before September 23/7/09 1/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0087 0.0076 0.0130 0.0148 0.0192 0.0418    
H1N1.PHASE6.09 WHO to raise level of influenza pandemic alert on influenza A H1N1 to phase 6 7/5/09 12/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9493 0.9099 0.9002 0.9002 0.5333 0.3697    
                           
New Zealand Housing                          
QV.AUCK.DEC08 Auckland QV index to fall by more than Wellington and Christchurch for year ended December 08 15/10/08 16/1/09 Indexed 0.5000 0.5167 0.7802 0.7802 0.8225 0.6146 0.5987 0.5826 0.5333
QV.WGTN.DEC08 Wellington QV index to fall by more than Auckland and Christchurch for year ended December 08 15/10/08 16/1/09 Indexed 0.0000 0.0010 0.0192 0.0130 0.0093 0.0302 0.0390 0.0392 0.1874
QV.CHCH.DEC08 Christchurch QV index to fall by more than Auckland and Wellington for year ended December 08 15/10/08 16/1/09 Indexed 0.5000 0.5000 0.1978 0.2086 0.1124 0.3405 0.3854 0.3543 0.2822
                           
BC.NOV08 How many residential building consents will be issued in November 2008? 28/11/08 21/1/09 Indexed 0.1168 0.1160 0.1160 0.1192 0.1192 0.1192 0.1192    
BC.DEC08 How many residential building consents will be issued in December 2008? 28/11/08 3/2/09 Indexed 0.1127 0.1192 0.1192 0.1192 0.1192 0.1192 0.1264 0.1124  
BC.JAN09 How many residential building consents will be issued in January 2009? 28/11/08 9/3/09 Indexed 0.0812 0.0691 0.0691 0.0691 0.0691 0.1124 0.1124 0.1192 0.1192
BC.FEB09 How many residential building consents will be issued in February 2009? 28/11/08 30/3/09 Indexed 0.1059 0.1059 0.1059 0.1059 0.1059 0.0939 0.1094 0.1192 0.1192
                           
QV.UP.MARAPR09 QV national property values to increase in March AND April 2009 3/4/09 10/4/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0087 0.0249 0.0303          
QV.UP.MAYJUN09 QV national property values to increase in May AND June 2009 3/4/09 8/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0114 0.0284 0.0249 0.0250 0.0249 0.0832 0.0418  
QV.UP.JULAUG09 QV national property values to increase in July AND August 2009 3/4/09 11/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0026 0.0148 0.0205 0.0180 0.0140 0.0249 0.0474 0.0538
                           
Economic Issues                          
ECON.RECESSION08 New Zealand to go into recession in 2008 2/7/08 26/9/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9330 0.9309 0.9287 0.8972 0.9390 0.9002 0.8498  
RECESSION.SEP08 GDP growth to be negative in September quarter 9/11/08 23/12/08 Binary 1.0000 0.9697 0.9656 0.9555 0.9608 0.9677 0.9795    
                           
INFLATION.3Q08 What will third quarter inflation be? 3/9/08 21/10/08 Indexed 0.5100 0.6146 0.6146 0.6146 0.6146 0.6146 0.6146    
INFL.3Q08 What will third quarter inflation be? 4/9/08 22/10/08 Indexed 0.5100 0.5100 0.5084 0.5083 0.5083 0.5042 0.5083    
                           
INFL.DEC08 What will December 2008 inflation be? 26/11/08 20/1/09 Indexed 0.3400 0.3543 0.3900 0.3854 0.3854 0.3854 0.3697    
INFL.MAR09 What will March 2009 inflation be? 26/11/08 17/4/09 Indexed 0.3000 0.3245 0.3245 0.3245 0.3245 0.3245 0.3392 0.2822 0.3392
INFL.JUN09 What will June 2009 inflation be? 26/11/08 16/7/09 Indexed 0.1900 0.1978 0.1978 0.1978 0.1874 0.1874 0.1874 0.2560 0.2560
                           
NZD.US.JAN09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the greenback in January 2009? 26/11/08 6/1/09 Indexed 0.5888 0.5810 0.5663 0.5663 0.5663 0.5515 0.5166    
NZD.US.FEB09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the greenback in February 2009? 26/11/08 3/2/09 Indexed 0.5082 0.5050 0.5167 0.5150 0.5235 0.5333 0.5662 0.5000  
NZD.US.MAR09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the greenback in March 2009? 26/11/08 9/3/09 Indexed 0.4992 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5005 0.5167 0.5000 0.5663 0.5000
RECESSION.DEC08 GDP growth to be negative in December quarter 23/12/08 27/3/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9852 0.9842 0.9870 0.9766 0.9716 0.9462 0.9462 0.9462
                           
UNEM.DEC08 What will the unemployment rate for the December 2008 quarter be? 9/1/09 5/2/09 Indexed 0.4600 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.4667 0.5000      
UNEM.MAR09 What will the unemployment rate for the March 2009 quarter be? 9/1/09 7/5/09 Indexed 0.5000 0.5498 0.5498 0.5498 0.5498 0.5498 0.5333 0.5498 0.5498
UNEM.JUN09 What will the unemployment rate for the June 2009 quarter be? 9/1/09 6/8/09 Indexed 0.6000 0.5826 0.5987 0.5987 0.5987 0.5826 0.5826 0.5663 0.5826
                           
UNEM.DECL.MAR09 Unemployment rate to first decline in March 2009 quarter 3/4/09 9/5/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0022 0.0013 0.0138 0.0392 0.0392 0.0474    
UNEM.DECL.JUN09 Unemployment rate to first decline in June 2009 quarter 3/4/09 6/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0180 0.0180 0.0180 0.0180 0.0234 0.0234 0.0367 0.0505
                           
INT.JUN09.70 Variable mortgage rates to be less than 7.0% in June 2009 28/1/09 7/7/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9978 0.9972 0.9968 0.9913 0.9842 0.9697 0.9751 0.9520
INT.JUN09.65 Variable mortgage rates to be less than 6.5% in June 2009 28/1/09 7/7/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9975 0.9974 0.9966 0.9913 0.9820 0.9555 0.9495 0.9168
INT.JUN09.60 Variable mortgage rates to be less than 6.0% in June 2009 28/1/09 7/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0093 0.0106 0.0998 0.5000 0.7914
INT.JUN09.55 Variable mortgage rates to be less than 5.5% in June 2009 28/1/09 7/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0037 0.0076 0.0067 0.0303 0.0725 0.1775
                           
RECESSION.MAR09 GDP growth to be negative in March quarter 24/2/09 26/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.9894 0.9900 0.9886 0.9870 0.9820 0.9656 0.9697 0.9633
RECESSION.JUN09 GDP growth to be negative in June quarter 24/2/09 23/9/09 Binary 0.0000 0.8581 0.8736 0.8126 0.8411 0.9462 0.9697 0.9116 0.9264
                           
RATING.SP.JUL09 Standard and Poors to downgrade New Zealands Foreign Currency credit rating before July 2009 7/5/09 1/7/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0045 0.0076 0.0076 0.0114 0.0121 0.0148    
                           
CONFAUG09.VLOW National Bank Business Confidence Index to be less than -10.0% in August 23/7/09 31/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0030 0.0042 0.0051 0.0219    
CONFAUG09.LOW National Bank Business Confidence Index to be between -10.0% and -0.1% in August 23/7/09 31/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0067 0.0067 0.0067 0.0093 0.0130 0.0445    
CONFAUG09.MID National Bank Business Confidence Index to be between 0.0% and +10.0% in August 23/7/09 31/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0418 0.0418 0.0418 0.0691 0.0610 0.2315    
CONFAUG09.HIGH National Bank Business Confidence Index to be between +10.1% and +20.0% in August 23/7/09 31/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0610 0.0610 0.0610 0.0782 0.0998 0.3697    
CONFAUG09.VHIGH National Bank Business Confidence Index to be more than +20.0% in August 23/7/09 31/8/09 Binary 1.0000 0.8876 0.8876 0.8808 0.8661 0.8225 0.3245    
CONFSEP09.HIGH National Bank Business Confidence Index to be between +20.1% and +30.0% in September 13/8/09 31/8/09 Binary 0.0000 0.4174 0.4174 0.5333 0.5000 0.5498      
                           
NZD.US.JUN09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the greenback in June 2009? 15/4/09 2/6/09 Indexed 0.6486 0.6303 0.6303 0.5987 0.5987 0.5826 0.5663    
NZD.US.SEP09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the greenback in September 2009? 15/4/09 1/9/09 Indexed 0.6858 0.6755 0.6755 0.6755 0.6900 0.6457 0.6146 0.6457 0.5987
NZD.AU.SEP09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the Aussie dollar in September 2009? 15/4/09 1/9/09 Indexed 0.8127 0.8126 0.8126 0.8126 0.8126 0.8022 0.8022 0.8022 0.8022
NZD.AU.JUN09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the Aussie dollar in June 2009? 15/4/09 2/6/09 Indexed 0.8008 0.7914 0.7914 0.7914 0.7914 0.7914 0.7914    
NZD.EU.JUN09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the Euro in June 2009? 15/4/09 2/6/09 Indexed 0.4580 0.4502 0.4502 0.4502 0.4337 0.4337 0.4337    
NZD.EU.SEP09 What will the New Zealand dollar be worth against the Euro in September 2009? 15/4/09 1/9/09 Indexed 0.4784 0.4667 0.4667 0.4667 0.4667 0.4502 0.4502 0.4502  
                           
Other                          
IP.LOGO.NONE iPredict to not select Logo Concepts 1, 2 or 3 for further development 5/6/09 9/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.2316 0.2435 0.2315          
IP.LOGO1 iPredict to select Logo Concept 1 for further development 5/6/09 9/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0782 0.0880 0.0884          
IP.LOGO2 iPredict to select Logo Concept 2 for further development 5/6/09 9/6/09 Binary 0.0000 0.0573 0.0691 0.0650          
IP.LOGO3 iPredict to select Logo Concept 3 for further development 5/6/09 9/6/09 Binary 1.0000 0.6303 0.6000 0.6146        

 

Complete data set is available for download here. This page last updated 30 September 2009.