iPredict

Extinct NZ bird to be rediscovered by end 2017

Long Description

This contract will close at $1 if an endemic NZ bird previously thought to be extinct is rediscovered in New Zealand before the 1st of January 2018 at 12:00am. Otherwise it will close at $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to determine the likelihood of an endemic NZ bird that has been declared extinct being rediscovered in NZ by the end of 2017.

The announcement of rediscovery will be taken from the Department of Conservation reports or reported by at least two reputable sources of journalism.

Rediscovery of the bird refers to any population of at least one living individual of the species, regardless of whether there are enough individuals to sustain an ongoing population.

New Zealand refers to New Zealand proper, which includes all of mainland New Zealand and directly surrounding islands, the Chatham Islands, Kermadec Islands and the New Zealand Subantarctic Islands.

The contract only applies to species of birds that are extinct list at the time of this contract's launch. Any species that is declared extinct after this contract's launch date will not cause the contract to close at $1 if rediscovered in the timeframe. Hence this contract does not include the South Island Kokako as its status is currently contended because of data deficiency.

iPredict reserves the right to keep this contract open as long as it deems appropriate. iPredict's judgment is final.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.