iPredict

Judith Collins to lose all Ministerial warrants before 20 September 2014

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if Judith Collins loses all Ministerial warrants before 20 September 2014. Otherwise, this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

This contract will close if Judith Collins loses all Ministerial warrants before 11:59pm on 19 September 2014.

This contract will close at $1 if Judith Collins announces her resignation, or if a definitive announcement is made by a suitable authority that she will no longer be a Minister with any portfolio.

This contract will not close at $1 unless Minister Collins loses ALL Ministerial warrants. The contract is unaffected by the Minister losing less than all of her Ministerial warrants. This contract is unaffected by whether Minister Collins is a Minister in or outside Cabinet.

The contract is also unaffected by whether she resigns voluntarily or involuntarily. For the avoidance of doubt, were Judith Collins to temporarily stand aside, or take leave, from her portfolios, in a way which falls short of her formally resigning or being dismissed from the portfolios, that would NOT cause this contract to close at $1.

A precedent for minister standing aside or taking leave from their portfolios without formally resigning or being dismissed was Rt Hon. Winston Peters in 2008, pending various investigations (see http://www.beehive.govt.nz/node/34520); and Hon. Gerry Brownlee, with respect to some of his portfolios to enable him to concentrate on the Christchurch earthquake recovery (see http://beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-reallocates-portfolios-put-focus-quake).


iPredict's judgement is final.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.